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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • reppeptgs reppeptgs Mar 2, 2013 9:14 AM Flag

    Saturday Report 3.2.13

    Good Saturday, one and all. To set the mood I give you a song I had the pleasure to hear performed live last week. Not by the original artist, but by two guys who did it justice. No message in the lyrics here—just a great song. Go to you tube and put this in after the back slash:


    Let’s look at the numbers: AVNR gained (gained? Is that allowed?) 5 cents on the week to close at $2.78 which is1.8%. The NASDAQ was red, losing 1.0%. YTD, the stock is still green by 6.2%. Last March 1, the stock closed at $2.77. So the YOY comparison is once again positive. But don’t let this get to your heads. The increase is a whopping 0.004 %. You can make more than that at a bank.

    Here’s how the week went day by day:

    Monday: Italian election results #$%$ the U.S. markets. NAS is down 45.57 to 3116.25 (1.44%). AVNR is green all day, until 3:48, when it gets punched several times. The stock recovers to go up by a couple cents, but then, in a trade that registered after hours, loses those two coppers to close even for the day. Mike commented on this at the time. Confounding. Volume was 948k.

    Tuesday: NAS see-saws its way to a gain of 13.40 points, or 0.43%. ANVR gains 3 cents at $2.76, (1.1%). Volume was 812k.

    Weds: The NAS has a green day, but slumps at the end to close with a gain of 32.61 points, well off the session’s highs. This was a 1.04% gain. AVNR was green after about 5 minutes, managing a gain of 4 cents to close at $2.80, a 1.45% gain. Volume was unexciting at 912k.

    Thurs: The NAS was green all day, only to end in the red, losing 2.07 points to 3160.19. AVNR had a bad day that got a little worse at the end. End of trading, it looked like the stock settled in at $2.74. But again the stock was victimized by a last minute trade, and closed with a loss of 8 cents to $2.72 (2.86%). Volume was the highest of the week at 1.218 million.

    Looks like this will have to be continued...

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • Thank you Sarge.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Sarg

      Thanks for the update.. Nice to be able to jump on the message board on Saturday and get the week in a nut shell.

    • Good Saturday Sarge,
      A minor point, the one year gain of one penny is 0.4%, not 0.004%
      The pharmacokinetic study for deut dex/less than 10 mg quin was not primarily for safety it was a pharmacokinetic study to show the amount of dex in the blood was about the same with deut dex as with dex/10 mg quin
      If just an MS or ALS label is given in Europe it may result in Avanir not marketing the drug in Europe, unless Avanir was just saying that as an empty threat to the Europeans to try to get them to give the drug a broad label.
      If Avanir does not market the drug in Europe that will obviously tell us how big a deal the narrow label versus broad label is for the small revenues that Europe would be giving Avanir for PBA.

    • Thanks Sarge........LL

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I just spotted an error. The NAS was actually up by 0.3% this week. I forgot to change the number from last week.

      Oh, and I notice that, even in the body of the narrative, the word #$%$" is not liked for some reason. So an old friend is relegated to an ID of asterisks and dollar signs...

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Friday: NAS gains 9.55 points or 0.30%). AVNR was green by 10:00 and stayed that way, gaining 6 cents or 2.21% to close at $2.78. Volume was not bad at 1.163 million. And thus, we have a result we have not seen for a while.

      What result? This is the first green week in six weeks. Can I hear a woo-HOO??

      This is actually worth more than just sarcasm. I think it’s a good sign from a technical standpoint. Take a look at a one-year chart. Starting with the leg down in late November, the stock appears to be putting in a series of higher lows. The most recent before this 6-weeks-of-very-little-fun was in early January, when the stock got down to about $2.50. I’d say this week could be the end of the recent down trend. The stock tried last week, but got beaten down. This week, Monday could well have been green, and Thursday ended lower than it should have. In other words, this week could have been much stronger.

      To me, it looks like the stock will go up a bit in the near future—say up to around $3.00 in the next couple or three weeks. Then it may level off for a while to form a handle to the cup we had to go through starting in November. And then we wait. But hey, we’re good at that.

      I’d welcome any actual TA people to give their two cents on the chart. It’d probably be better than the musings of a DJ wanna-be like me.

      One of my favorite posters in these parts is mqwlaser. He’s been around so long it makes me look like a rookie, and he shares some pretty meaty facts. Take a look at his thread called Hard Numbers. He spoke to the company. They are now focusing on pill counts, which is an effective way to find relevant numbers since the dispensing rules for LTC changed on 1/1. The company has gained a solid 7.2% in pills sold in the six weeks since the beginning of the year, from 139k to 149k pills per week. As he says, that’s good, solid growth.

      To be continued. Same Bat Station.

      • 1 Reply to reppeptgs
      • This company is doing fine. The enhanced and refocused sales force, it seems, is just getting its footing. I expect these numbers to continue to improve for the rest of the quarter and beyond. What does this mean? Provided this sort of growth continues, I just don’t see a need for big dilutive financing in the company’s future. Ever again.

        And the company is really well-positioned for the future. Here I specifically refer to the next version of Nuedexta with the heavy hydrogen atom. The Phase I results showed safety in healthy adults. They’re now exploring how to utilize this new formulation so it is most effective. Yes, they may still have to use Quinidine, but apparently it will be less than the 10 mg they are currently using, so the safety profile will be even more benign (those commercials for new drugs continue to amaze me. “Take this pill. It may make you commit suicide, but your varicose veins will be a thing of the past!”). Compared to some of the stuff on the market, Nuedexta (and now its successor) seems wonderfully unexciting.

        I know it’s frustrating to look at all the trials going on, think of the expense they are taking, and wait, wait, WAIT for results. Before investing here, I never realized how LONG it takes to develop a drug. But here’s the thing: with Twodexta, the IP is protected well into the 2020’s. And all this work with Nuedexta is laying the groundwork for the next generation. By the time the successor comes along, Avanir will have already done the hard stuff. The market will be waiting.

        Almost done...

        Sentiment: Buy