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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • tradestoxx11 tradestoxx11 Mar 22, 2013 8:46 AM Flag

    Ladies and Gentlemen...just so i'm perfectly CLEAR about something here...

    My Break even prediction is now being moved AHEAD to the Oct to Dec..2013 time frame from what was my contest entry of the Feb~March 2013 time frame. Unlike OFP..i don't have the need to LIE about my entry and pretend it never happened...like he is now with his june~july 2013 entry which he is NOW making july 2014 instead in the post below. The difference is...while i have modified my prediction...I can ALSO stand behind the reasons I made it....AND the reason why i am now CHANGING it. OFP..the waffler...morpher..doesn't seem to possess those same characteristics. As for the REASONS I am changing it...Overall it's two fold. The first is that since I first made my predictions WAY back at 200/wk Trx...I think it was generally assumed or thought that the EU would have happened sooner than it now will. In fact..my and others original thoughts were that it could be approved by last Oct to December even. That simply didn't happen and primarily because the company wanted the presentation and submission to be done RIGHT. And, to not overburden the staff who was responsible for that. And so, that's reason #1 which accounts for SOME of the difference. The other part relates to business itself. As we all know...business slowed down last summer and into the fall and while it recovered some...it wasn't back at the 30% quarterly growth we had been seeing. And, generally that trend has continued with growth moderating back to the 15% to perhaps 20% quarterly growth level.
    What i think happened was this. We simply hit the number of scripts that when you factor OUT the drop off rate which is probably about 20%....A great deal of the sales forces efforts then go into simply replacing them. What my calculation was originally was that WOULD be the case...but what would then be replacing it was the kind of mass marketing efforts that would make up for it. And, the company did then introduce the commercials and they do seem to be well received. (continued)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • "Liar..my predictions were always in the same general range involving year end 2012. "
      Trade, that is not true.
      Before Nuedexta was on the market, you predicted $666 million in revenues by the end of 2011.
      OnlyFacts has shown posts of subsequent breakeven predictions of yours of June, 2012 and almost every single month after that.
      Your prediction of Feb. 15th, 2013 was made in very early May, 2012 and after the conference call of May 7th, 2012, (and after the deadline for the entries for the Great Breakeven Open Contest) you modified your prediction to March, 2013).

    • Who cares about any of your lies? This stock will never hit $4 again ever (you bought a ton over 5) and will be 0.10 in 5 years. So #$%$.

    • All anyone has to do is search this board for "break even dates" and they will see page after page of your definitive predictions, all of which you have denied making, time after time. I wish OFP would post a link to that post where he provided about a dozen of your ever-moving predictions.

      Now I see why someone here recently called you Auntie Anne. Your twisting yourself into a pretzel to try to wiggle out of past lies is a thing to watch.

      Bert # 423

 
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