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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • tradestoxx11 tradestoxx11 Mar 26, 2013 8:06 AM Flag

    Price target for stock for next year based on EPS alone....

    I think 14.00 per share is VERY reasonable. Consider this. Break even by Oct~November and then it's all about earnings. How much for next year? Applying a 15 to 20% growth rate per quarter and a very modest amount from the EU I think we can work our way up to about .60 to 70 cents in EPS by the time 2014 closes out.
    That eps figure at a p/e of 20 would indicate a 14.00 valuation on the stock price AND that p/e just might be low because our yearly growth rate would be much higher than that.

    I think however that the numbers suggest that at LEAST 14.00 per share is VERY doable provided we can maintain a quarterly growth rate of around 15 to 20% and..depending then on the EU contribution and how much more the market might decide to assign to the price for that continued growth...even higher could certainly be possible.

    And so..the million dollar question is...what are we doing at 2.84?

    lol. Folks. Let me explain that. Remember anik at 6? It's now 14. things change. And sometimes..very quickly.
    My motto from 35 years in the market show me a company with near break even results today AND you show me a company with that continued growth rate ...and you show me a stock with these ultra low valuations....

    and i'll show you my next winning play.

    Be in avnr. Be PATIENT. The thing to watch is their growth. Don't be ANAL about it....things vary up and down...but as long as we're maintaining that general 15 to 20% rate....we'll be in very good shape for a BIG move up as we move forward. AND, it will be propelled perhaps higher with short covering. Ray Hamas is not going to win this one.


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Another "Fun with Math" cl#$%$, where an actual adult shows the cl#$%$ how illiterate he is in the math area.

      Every time I think you've outdone yourself by way of showing your #$%$ to the world, you go and top the previous debacle. Is there no end to your no-shame tour?

      Yeah, you're Auntie Anne. Twist away, pretzel.

    • You, in January 2011:

      "I'm using calender year 2011.

      200,000 patients (on average)

      Price per share for 2011..I think we'll hit close to 48.00 by the end of the year.

      I arrive at that based on the 300,000 patients figure and using the formula of 25k patients = 4.00 per share. I'm using the 300k figure instead of 200k because by years end I think we'll be ramped up to that number of patients and the market will be assigning a revenue/eps/per share price compatible with that growth.

      Bottom prediction for calender year 2011 is
      revenues..about 666 Million and a pps of 48.00 for the high by years end.

      Moving into 2012 and beyond..adjust it upwards towards my 80.00 per share target price."

      You have zero credibility here.