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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • tradestoxx11 tradestoxx11 Mar 26, 2013 9:18 AM Flag

    I see the bashers are out in force regarding my forecasts and price targets

    and so let me be clear about something.
    LONG ago..i changed my highest target from 250.00 to 100.00 per share.

    My longer term target REMAINS at 100.00 per share. Granted..it might be a high side figure but essentially here's how i see it. I see us going in time WELL into the mid to upper DOUBLE digits in price. 50..60...70.
    And from there..100.00 really isn't that far. I also said LONG ago that this process was going to take time. We were going to do it with EARNINGS. Earnings would be the driver if nothing else did it.
    and i think that earnings can take us there in time.

    We will have 22 years of Ddex protection. 14.00 share for next year is very doable i think. that IMO..makes 20/share the year after very doable. We will actually ACCELERATE more as time goes on because other products will then be added. And so..tell me..why then is 50.00 out of line? It's not. it's doable..in time.
    And so too is 60 and 70 and 80.

    and yes..even 100.00.

    And so, while the bashers will bash...and scammers will scam...i stay true to my predictions.

    100.00 share. is where it's at.

    ~TS
    jmho

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • "14.00 share for next year is very doable i think. that IMO..makes 20/share the year after very doable. We will actually ACCELERATE more as time goes on because other products will then be added. And so..tell me..why then is 50.00 out of line? It's not. it's doable..in time.
      And so too is 60 and 70 and 80.

      and yes..even 100.00."
      I'll start you off with the perspective of market cap. There are about 137.2 million shares outstanding.
      So $14 for next year would be a market cap of at least $1.921 billion with a "b" while the consensus analyst estimate is for only $122 million in gross revenues which is about $100 million in net revenues as Avanir grinds out its third year and fourth years of a very poor launch in what I suspect is about a $500 million U.S. market as Avanir initially claimed.
      Why is $20 not "doable"? Because the market cap would be at least $2.744 billion.
      Why is $50 "out of line", you ask? Because the market cap would be
      $6.86 billion or almost 14 times the entire US PBA market, of which Nuedexta will only get a fraction.
      $100? Why not? Because the market cap would be $13.72 billion. I have proven overly optimistic here, but am still hoping for $220 million in net peak PBA revenues and $875 million in net peak neuropathic pain revenues. Even if that optimistic scenario happens, (less likely every year that goes by without any significant neuropathic pain use) perhaps by 2017, that $1.095 billion in net revenues would not justify a market cap of more than about $2.8 to $3.3 billion, or a stock market price of $20.40 to $24.05.
      Less than those prices because the number of outstanding shares continues to go up.

    • And, from OFP we have this..."Yes, let's recap my "calls":
      2.62M patients - still a reasonable estimate FOR that population as defined based on available data. You've never been able to decide if that number is too high or too low"

      Well..there you have it folks. he's agreeing with me again that the patient popultion is in the millions. And, i've never said nor thought the number was too high. In fact..i've stated i believe it's LOW on many occassions.
      Just more lies from the master of them..OFP.

      In any event..now that he's acknowledging that YES..he did say that...perhaps we'll get an acknowledgement that YES..his initial call for b/e was in 2015..then 2014...then june/july 2013 as he morphed into my call.
      He uses carefully chosen words however such as he never exactly CALLED that. Instead..he showed up with a chart of that being his highest probability. lol. And now..in a post to jean recently..he seems to be back to july 2014 with his b/e prediction.

      And he calls..............ME....someone who jumps around with estimates? The guy has been to alpha Centauri and back folks with his wide ranging predictions. All the while donning his horn rimmed glasses..pocket protector complete with slide ruler and pretending he has a clue what he is doing.

      LOL!

      In any event....OFP...tell us. Based on a 20% QUARTERLY growth rate from now until Sept quarter AND based on the EU coming online around july....do you AGREE that an Oct to Nov. THIS YEAR..break even prediction..which is what i am calling for based on THOSE parameters....is accurate?
      If So..STATE it clearly. If NOT..state why NOT.

      And, assuming that you will morph now into my latest call.....how do you feel about my 60 to 70 cent EPS estimate for NEXT year. Again..based on a roughly 15 to 20% growth rate going forward?

      AND...do you AGREE or disagree that CAN and will support a 14.00 per share price target based on VERY conservative market multiples?

      Let us know man.

      :)

      ~TS

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • fomer MM aka bert says this..""Out in force" - one person (me) having a little fun with his predictions. Hyperbole is not one of his lesser attributes. :) "

      Oh..so you DO admit that you ARE mytek? because he was one i was referring to.

      Lets face it bert. You have more aliases on this board that we can keep up with.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to tradestoxx11
      • Oh..so you DO admit that you were referring to ONE person's singular post, when you said the bashers were OUT IN FORCE?

        What an idiot. Can't even realize that in your rush to smear someone and accuse them of being Bert, you admit to your own exaggerated lie! Please sir, I want some more, lol.

        By the way, you NEVER called ANIK at 6. You can keep referring to calls you never made and hope they become truth in the minds of others, but some of us know better.

      • I'm sure like most people, I have all the mytek variations on ignore, so I wouldn't know of what you speak. That you waste your time reading the posts of those like him say more about your insecurities, and desperate need to be loved, than it says about anything else.

    • Maybe people are tired of your asinine assumptions followed by a litany of errors.

      Maybe.

      • 3 Replies to onlyfactsplease
      • Oh, and I seemed to have forgotten ..."followed by a litany of misunderstandings and lies to distract from the litany of errors".

        Yes, let's recap my "calls":
        2.62M patients - still a reasonable estimate FOR that population as defined based on available data. You've never been able to decide if that number is too high or too low nor do you understand the "as defined part"...but as usual you don't let ignorance get in the way of posting

        The rest are all lies

        The weakness of your go-to criticisms is amusing.

      • And so...let's recap OFP's calls. they started out with a 2 part novel co~authored with Bert on Seeking alpha. there he called for us to have 2.62 Million burdened patients lining up at the door.

        When that didn't work out in the first few mos..he went to break even in either 2014 or 2015. I can't recall exactly which. As my b/e date became March 2013..he then suddenly morphed into his highest probability chart which called for B/E sometime in june or july, 2013. After all..he didn't want to be left out on what i was seeing.

        And when i conceded that yes..my March target was probably a bit too optomistic...and changed that Oct to November 2013...he's now somewhere back in 2014 land.

        Recall folks.this is the guy that said that alz patients wouldn't be on this drug either.

        lol. there you have it. What can i say that the facts don't speak for themselves?

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • "Out in force" - one person (me) having a little fun with his predictions. Hyperbole is not one of his lesser attributes. :)

 
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