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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • tradestoxx11 tradestoxx11 Apr 22, 2013 5:11 PM Flag

    Yahoo Board SPECIAL REPORT....."Countdown to Breakeven"

    Folks, I'm beginning this new thread which will be kept updated weekly from now until Break Even.
    The numbers are based on my calculation of a break even pill count and compared each week with the IMS
    pill count numbers posted here on this board.

    Week ending .....Pill counts...............B/E pill count.....% remaining.....ytd Growth.....B/E month
    4/5/13 ............170,000...................242,865.............42.86%...........18.8%............
    4/12/13 ............173,910 (+2.3%).....242,865.............39.64%...........21.6%.............September

    Note: B/E pill count is arrived at by factoring in one more price increase of 5 to 7% between now and
    the B/E date.

    No EU data or sales is factored into my B/E date.

    I believe this to be as accurate as realistically possible given the information available to us here on this board.
    If you disagree...great. Start your own thread to keep track of what you think.

    ~TS
    jmho

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Hi TRadestoxx.
      I have read with interest some of your posts. I can see that you are very excited about AVNR.
      Enjoyed reading the positive statements .
      Can I offer you a little bit of advice ? Don't start your posts with " Folks " .......
      Its what mid west market stall owners would say before they peddle their wares.

      IMHO .

    • NOTE: Wk ending 4/12 data is incorrect. Per Jean pc's were down 2.3% instead of up. I'll correct this information later this week or next Monday when i do the new numbers.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to tradestoxx11
      • bumopppp

      • Pills sold for the week ending 4/12/13 should now be slightly more than 166,090.
        Considering that total pills sold the week ending 3/22/13 was 165,000, the 3 week growth has been only about 0.7%
        If we had gross revenues of $142 million, using a 19.7% discount rate, we would have net revenues of $114.03. Assuming gross margin of 95% that would give net operating income (if that is the right term) of $108.33 million which would probably be breakeven.
        To have gross revenues of $142 million at roughly $10 gross per pill, we would need to sell about 14.2 million pills per year or about 273,077 pills per week.
        If growth were 1.3% per week, it would take about 38.5 weeks to get to about 273,000 pills sold, or about 8.5 months from April 12th or about January 29th, 2014.

 
AVNR
6.10-0.12(-1.93%)Sep 2 4:00 PMEDT

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