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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • mqwlaser mqwlaser May 8, 2013 7:55 PM Flag

    Critical CC info

    The noise here after the CC requires a few comments.

    First, as has been discussed here for months by thinking longs, this quarter was going to see a slight slow down in q over q growth compared to previous quarters due to the change in script sizes mandated by the change in health care laws. January put us in a comparative hole that the solid growth of Feb and March couldn't completely overcome.

    That being said, there are a few critical takeaways from today's CC that bear repeating.

    First, revenue for the last 8 weeks is up 15% from the 8 weeks prior. Translation: we are having a very solid current quarter and if the growth continues as forecast, we will once again see 20+% q over q growth for the quarter ending June 30.

    Second, LTC for the last 8 weeks has grown 25% over the previous 8 weeks. That is an exceptional rate of growth, and considering that LTC represents 53% of revenue, I am anticipating a continued weekly climb in pill sales throughout the quarter as a result.

    Lastly, AVNR has now firmly said that the partnership they seek is NOT just for PBA in Europe, but for all follow on indications there as well. This partnership will be more than simply upfront fees/royalties for projected sales of N in Europe over the next ten years, but will also include rights fees for the other indications, with significant financial contribution to clinical development, and milestones for successes along the way. In other words, they are seeking a very big deal.

    Given that EU approval will not be here until August, that it will likely include 30/10 N as well, and that we will have pain data sometime in the fourth calendar Q (after sept 30), if pain is successful at 30/10, the likelihood of successfully completing that deal is reasonably good in my opinion.

    I was VERY pleased with what I heard. Stock price tomorrow is meaningless.

    Good luck to all longs

    Laser

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • could have not said it better myself.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • AVNR gave us 3 important reasons for the January slowdown, all of which should be one time events (ACA rule change, major institution botching their PA, usual Jan 1 PA expiration). This explains the big dip at that point.

      What infuriates me is that AVNR has repeatedly tried to make growth comparisons to that time. The 8 week vs. 8 week comparison purposefully goes back exactly to the maximum nadir in pills sold. If the dip was a one-time, artificial event then it is not valid to use growth rates during recovery from it (i.e. reinstitution of exisiting patients/scripts) as a basis current growth rate. AVNR knows this yet they repeatedly give us these misleading statistics to try to sway us to extrapolate with that artificial growth. All 3 reasons for a dip related to LTC which is why their recovery rates are so high. OTOH, the retail segment is showing some excellent/strong growth but it's lost in all this BS the company is throwing out.

      Next month's Q/Q pills sold will once again have the big dip within the comparison period. I do think 20% Q/Q growth in Q3 is possible but I'd expect something in the 18-19% range. Growth in net revenues is likely to be substantially less than 20% though unless inventories continue to rise at the same pace and that is just unsustainable. After next Q I don't expect to ever get close to 20% Q/Q pills sold growth again unless there is a MAJOR new driver of sales to push it.

      • 1 Reply to onlyfactsplease
      • what infuriates ME is YOU OFP. You take what was really meant to be a simple statement that really..any newbie could figure out...and you blow it completely out of proportion. And worse yet..attempt to present them as being misleading with it.

        It was a simple statement saying that growth the last 8 weeks was up 15% from the 8 weeks before.
        As you say they ALSO explained why the prior 8 weeks was down. Nothing misleading about that except YOU and your twisted version of it.

        And now..why don't you and Ray just concede that yes...my pill count to b/e count IS correct....as is the time frame we're on for Oct to December.

        And then take the summer off and give us all a break from your ranting and nonsense.

        Try it..you might like it. You do need a vacation. A long vacation. In a psychiatric ward most preferably.

        ~Congo

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • My takeaway about the EU is this. Like i ALWAYS said...they really should just go this alone. At least for a while. There is a great deal of future value here to be extracted but we need more time to do that.
      It is impossible to seperate N among the future uses in terms of a partnership and so we need ONE partner who will clearly see the potential here and pay for it. Once the litigation is resolved AND we have more data regarding other uses I think the value is going to be greatly increased and would have made it worth the time to simply wait.

      This does NOT mean we don't go into the EU upon approval. quite the reverse like KK said they are now proceeding with whatever they have to do in order to go that route. The bolstered their cash position and are now prepared to do just that.

      WEAK companies sell out at the wrong time. Avnr is not weak. We have options..and we have time.
      Understand this. We are talking about a 22 year future here for this drug with DDEX rights.
      And the EU is a VERY valuable part of that. To extract that value we need the right partner....and one who is willing to pay a FAIR price for all that we have here.

      Go it........ALONE..for now. 3 or 4 markets in the EU. It will not cost that much to open up ourselves.
      A sales office..sales mgr...some reps. Other than that IMO we have all we need to support that.

      There is NOTHING rayscam would like more than to see an early EU deal. You';ll see a pop in the stock like the chmp move up. ...and they'll beat it right back down by shorting more. What will MOVE this stock is earnings over time. And the best way is to fully realize the value of the EU.

      ~Congo

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to tradestoxx11
      • The whole EU deal is not that big a deal for Avanir. They can make an EU partnership deal for all future indications but they should hold out for some value for that.
        What they definitely should not do is trade away R&D expenses for U.S. licensing for pain, which is what I got from the conference call.
        That would be a huge mistake and might be a game changer for me as to whether I continue to hold my small long position.
        Avanir should develop the pain R&D as fast as possible and sell the US rights to it only after FDA approval around 2020.

    • Thank you so much for putting some factual clarity here.

    • mqlaser: You provided a CLEARER explanation of the past, present and future of AVNR than KK or any of his English as a second language (ESL) employees did! Well done! I continue to be concerned with KK's comments about the product licensing in Europe. I would hope that he nearly has a commitment from a large pharma to partner with to handle present and future AVNR products in Europe. I should hope that he is not going to drag that on for many months as AVNR management has a reputation of being slow to get their work done as evidenced by their slow response to the first questions the CHMP sent them about N. Slow as molasses!!!!UGH!!!

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to rside1948
      • A European partner is going to take longer to get if AVNR is insisting on a full partnership with contributions to the R&D program.
        AVNR should just be getting a European partner and if they need to include sale of license rights to pain in Europe because they can't separate out PBA from pain use, they should just do that and save the US pain program as an Avanir pure play.

    • thnks for the explanation. much appreciated

    • I honestly do not know how management is still employed here. They have poorly managed this company and have poorly executed the launch of N as well as developing it for other indications and getting it approved in EU. My take is they want a big partner however they do not have a track record that this is going to be a blockbuster drug. As you indicate they may wait till they receive results from the pain trial but by then this will be approved in EU. Are they just going to sit with their thumbs up their butts till the results come in and someone wants to pony up the money, or will they put boots on the ground? Either way if they wait for a partnership or put boots on the ground it shows management is incompetent.

    • Laser WELL SAID! SPOT ON!!!!!!!!

      First, revenue for the last 8 weeks is up 15% from the 8 weeks prior. Translation: we are having a very solid current quarter and if the growth continues as forecast, we will once again see 20+% q over q growth for the quarter ending June 30.

      Second, LTC for the last 8 weeks has grown 25% over the previous 8 weeks. That is an exceptional rate of growth, and considering that LTC represents 53% of revenue, I am anticipating a continued weekly climb in pill sales throughout the quarter as a result.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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