- Settlement of Nuedexta generic litigation likely before two week trial starting 9/9/13; AVP-786 patent good until 2030; it will supplant AVP-923 with higher safety and efficacy; its on the on fast track due to FDA 505b2 status; removes near term generic risk without any reverse payments; AVNR won all 5 items at the Markman hearing; and critically, Judge Starks modified terminology utilized in a claim pertaining to the RE38115 patent regarding the CYP2D6 inhibitor that is synonymous with AVNR's definitions and included the words "excluding cimetidine" that the defendant generic mfgs sought to remove pertaining to RE38115....AVNR's patents look solid...but some sort of nominal settlement will be coming by the end of August...; success in the Paragraph IV challenge will lead to a higher multiple...I think the stock will slowly move higher into such a brokered settlment....looking for mid $5s by 9/1/13;
- EU Appproval...one analyst has already modeled at 40-50M partnership up front fee plus a 15% back end royalty...this will insure enough cash for AVNR until positive cash flow and profitability are achieved...this imputed 50M covers at least 3 quarters of losses...& by 3-4 Q 14, AVNR will clearly be both cash flow positive and profitable...internally generated cash flow will easily cover all expenses by then; +LTC RX growth;
- Sales ramping to 220M by FY 2015...AVNR's market cap is about 8X sales for projected FY13 gross annual revenues now...this should insure a move at least over $8 in the next 12 months....220 M X 8/153M fully diluted common share float...gives $11.50 share price...but to be conservative...I say it AVNR trades at $8-9 by mid 2014 if wow week sales ramp continues apace at 1-2%;
- Home run AVP 786 Alz uses and MS pain applications are where the big money will be...a 500M annual market opportunity...if AVNR is even around then...there could be a bidding war for it within the next 18 months...I am looking at TEVA, Takeda, PFE, Elan and Roche..
Placesontherun, in want to validate your comment with technical analysis--GLTA:
success in the Paragraph IV challenge will lead to a higher multiple...I think the stock will slowly move higher into such a brokered settlment....looking for mid $5s by 9/1/13;
Elliott Wave Trend
Current State: Wave 5 (Bullish)
Event Date: Jun 17, 2013
Close at Event: 4.52
Target Price: 5.66
Latest wave in the eight wave cycle.
"Sales ramping to 220M by FY 2015..."
Assuming you're talking about net sales, I don't think so, unless off-label pain sales start.
Net sales for FY end 9/2013 are projected by analyst average estimate to be $75.89 million and $121.02 million for FY end 9/2014, a 59.5% increase.
The very poor launch has slowed quarter over quarter so a 40% increase from FY 2014 to FY 2015 would be good and would lead to $169.43 million in net sales for FY end 9/2015.
Why not just give it to them for free and call it a day?
MINIMUM..25%......or no deal. And even that's pretty low given the profitability of our drug.
Like I said..just go the EU alone. there's no deal worth having right now...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
"it will supplant AVP-923 with higher safety and efficacy; "
Deut-dex/quin will not have any more efficacy than dex/quin.
$40-50 million upfront European license fee with a 15% royalty sounds too high to me. Do you recall which analyst is guessing that?