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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • madhudaryanani madhudaryanani Jul 6, 2013 6:57 AM Flag

    Shelf Registration or dilution $150M

    Is this an increased Shelf Registration - or a dilution coming up ? AVNR filed a Form S-3 Registration Statement on 5th July 2013 for $150m and increased the value of shares that Cowen can sell - from $25M to $50M.

    Can't post the link as it is from ADVFN and as it is not on Yahoo's whitelist. But you can look it it up on EDGAR.

    Mike

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    • mad, you missed a small fact from the filing. The authorization to increase the value of shares Cowen can sell was bumped up to $50M from $25M. HOWEVER, Cowen had already sold ~$19.6M of that initial $25M, so at this point they are authorized to sell around $30.4M (~$5.4M remaining from the1st $25M plus the new $25M).

    • If they go the EU alone and with the additional money need to pay optinose and with the ongoing testing for the other uses they would need to raise some more cash to see them through next year. Personally, i'd rather see them do this though than partner because I think the relatively small dilution would be much less than the benefits we'd receive in time from the EU keeping all the revenues to ourselves.

      This move does seem to suggest they're planning on going the EU alone..at least for now. It's really the only reason I can see for such a move because if they were going to partner they'd receive upfront cash and make this move unnecessary. Another alternative however is that they're doing this to strengthen their hand in negotiations and basically saying....we don't need you....and unless and until you're REALLY ready to negotiate then we'll just go it alone. And..they then did this to show they mean business.

      Given the strength of our business this year I'd have to think that KK is growing more and more leery about partnering. The numbers just do NOT make sense given what we have here. Our enormous gross margins...revenues we're seeing here....all the other uses down the line..makes the EU a VERY valuable franchise at this point. What I think however is that if we DON'T partner..then it very well might start some big pharmas moving to buy the entire company...trying to take advantage of the stock price being as low as it is now. Optinose would help us in that I think. We now have this addition that I think adds considerable value in any take over attempt.

      What is now Odd is the afterhours action in this stock. That was quite a few shares for after hours..and to be bid up that high...? It would seem to suggest someone knows something AND that something isn't going to wait until the market opens on Monday. At the same time..it's really foolish if someone tried to buy ahead of that news given the SEC would surely look at those trades. In any event..lots of drama

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 3 Replies to tradestoxx11
      • I agree with your comment about KK forcing BP's hands. I think he is fed up with their small change offers. Therefore, he is playing their game with their chips but keeping all the proceeds. I believe that AVNR now has the muscle in growing current and future worth to currently demand an offer no less than $40/share and that is today, right now. Tomorrow and next week that value is old and a new offer value is then discussed. KK is forcing their hand and he probably says if not interested at that price, then, that's okay because we are very happy with our plan model and we are targeting a path to $40/ share and beyond. Then, next quarter we will adjust our projection to a target path of $60/share and beyond. Time is on our side and I for one am very happy in having KK as our skipper. March on AVNR, march on !!!!!!!!!
        Hans

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Good morning Tradestoxx – trust all is well.

        Having looked at the EU over several years and having posted relevant information on the board I think we may agree on how easily it can be done. You may have missed this little snippet from the terms of the EMA full approval documentation. The snippet being part of that hidden sales force I have banged on about. “the company that makes Nuedexta must ensure that all healthcare professionals who are expected to use Nuedexta receive an information pack” in that respect get the printing press going over there, don’t forget the different languages.

        I also can concur with your good self regarding the after hours trading, we shall see soon enough if there is any significance or not, may be interesting early Monday.

        As you are probably aware I have been patient for many years watching and waiting for Avanir to develop, what a journey that has been. I can put up with most things here, however skullduggery is not one of them. I say this in respect of a scenario that could/may happen. Is it conceivable that in the event of a share shortage and the short postions have no easy means to cover (that is if not already done so) as they/we anticipate an increase in the pps. Do any of the additional shares that are made available get the blighters out of the bottom less pit they are in. As we say over here that would not be Cricket.

        Enjoy your weekend.

        Sr Falconi

        Sentiment: Hold

      • "What is now Odd is the afterhours action in this stock. That was quite a few shares for after hours..and to be bid up that high...?"

        That's what I'm trying to figure out. The SEC filing was filed just after closing - and should have brought the price down - NOT a 10% price surge in afterhours trading.

        The only reason I can think of is that the news was made public much later on.

        But given the upsurge - yes, something is UP. Let's just hope it's the price, next week onwards.

        Mike

    • Go to Sec.gov Filings Most Recent Filings Search Avanir Click File 333-189831 Click Documents

 
AVNR
5.22-0.05(-0.95%)Jul 25 4:00 PMEDT

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