Patent settlement next catalyst for upward stock price movement
Quite likely in the next six weeks. Most cases of this type settle before the actual rendered opinion by the bench judge, based on the trial being over in late September, 2013. The decision should come in before December. Of course the case could also settle prior to trial.
EU partnership discussions also will help drive price higher. When a deal is struck, I believe it will include an upfront payment much larger than is usual in these types of deals, for the simple reason of the long tail of AVP-923 and especially improved DM. I am assuming 50M minimum and more likely 75M. The latter number covers cash burn for 4 more quarters for AVNR, and by then N gross revenues should be tracking in the 130-140M range....AVNR will be assuredly cash flow positive by that point in time. Ignore the short noise and hold long term. The end result for AVNR is a buyout, and at very high multiple of revenue, given its excellent patent position (long life of same) and rapidly ramping revenues. AVP-825 is an added bonus....and should contribute 100M to revenue within 3 years....
I think exhorting others to keep their shares shows a lack of confidence in one's investment thesis.
As for the trial, I think Avanir should just go for total victory--all the way to a decision--no settlement.
Leave it up to the judge to decide what's fair. After all, Avanir thinks their intellectual property claims are strong, right? Avanir spent all that time and all that money on developing a new drug, the first to be approved for the indication, with a novel use of quinidine at a dose much smaller than could be known by those skilled in the art to be effective and Avanir is just going to give some of the rewards of it away to extortionists as protection against a possibly unjust outcome?
Avanir should defend its intellectual property vigorously.
As for Europe, I think the exact opposite from you about the upfront payment, simply because off-label pain use is a big unknown and PBA sales have been small in the U.S. and will be smaller in Europe.
So I think a small upfront payment is called for--like $15-$16 million and a larger than normal royalty, like 20% with milestone payments. So it would be much more a back-end loaded deal.
The key thing with regard to Europe now is to just make a normal deal and forget about the nonsense about having the European partner fund Avanir's R&D for other indications because that is not happening without U.S. rights. And that is not what Avanir shareholders bought the stock for and not what a European partner would want to do unless there is complete or near-complete victory in the patent infringement lawsuit.
This specious post of yours made me chuckle...the generics went 0 for 5 on word construction in Judge Stark's 17 page 12/3/12 Markman hearing opinion as to both of the key patents...AVNR can settle with them easily without giving up anything of import. Before you go spouting off on patent issues, I suggest you read his Markman hearing opinion from 12/3/12 and also check the case docket on PACER, like I have...AVNR can give up a year on each patent and knock this case out FOR GOOD, easily...& by the time of the expiration of the various/sundry AVP-923 patents, AVP-786 will have supplanted it with the FDA's blessing under Rule 505 (b) (2)..and the patents on it are good until 2030..NOT TO MENTION, absolutely bullet proof...settlement means certainty and finality for AVNR...which is what it clearly desires...I find it incongruous that you all of a sudden want AVNR to "fight it out" through trial...when a nominal settlement gets it absolute certainty in the patent arena for well over a decade..but, then again, you are just an obnoxiously predictable shill for the shorts, so, of course, you have to make that two bits per post...It is evident that you don't know much about patent litigation, either....settlements happen well over 80 per cent of the time in cases like this...