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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • reppeptgs reppeptgs Aug 10, 2013 10:34 AM Flag

    Saturday Report, 10 August, 2013

    Today, I would humbly submit some songs from the Southeastern U.S. The first selection is from a duo who makes a very fulfilling sound with just two voices and one guitar: The Civil Wars. Yes, there's a long intro, but it's worth the wait. Please go to my subsidiary website (that’s a joke), and plug in this suffix.


    Let’s look at the numbers. After gaining 19 cents last week, AVNR gave back a humbling 49 cents to close at $4.40 (down 10.02% from $4.89). The NASDAQ also gave some back, but not as bad: 0.8%. YTD, the stock’s gain is 68.1%. That’s still nothing to sneeze at.

    Last August 9, the stock closed at $2.86. So YOY, AVNR has gained 53.8%. Maybe our investment isn’t so bad after all.

    Here’s how the week went:

    Monday: The NAS has a see-saw day, ending up green by 3.36 points or 0.09% to 3693. AVNR took the last bit of momentum from the prior week, gaining 8 cents or 1.64% to $4.97. Volume was perhaps a sign that things were not all rosy, at 936,868. Range was from $4.91 to $4.98. Seemed like it was going to be easier than we thought to pass $5.00. Right.

    Tuesday: Earnings scheduled to be released after hours by Avanir. The NAS does not set the tone well, losing 27.18 points (0.74%) to close at 3665.8. AVNR has a red day, losing 18 cents or 3.62%) to close at $4.79. Volume was below average at 1.689M. Range = $4.73-$4.97.

    Weds: The NAS is red, losing 11.76 points or 0.32% to 3654. AVNR shoots out of the gate after beating consensus estimates by 2 cents, only to fall to a loss of 12 cents to $4.67. Volume is 2.734 million, and the range is $4.61 to $4.99. Still kissing our proverbial sister.

    Time for another song! Now I give you one voice and one guitar. The great Bobbie Gentry in a live performance.



    Sentiment: Buy

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    • Thank you, Sarge. Great stuff as usual including your eclectic taste in music. Just one question: do you think these civil wars cats will come out with an album called Rumours II once they break it off? (Don't mean to draw to many parallels to Lindsey out if respect ;) .

      Have a nice weekend everyone.

    • Sarge, first off the Civil Wars, great taste in music and great music! Yes, this week was somewhat disappointing seeing our Avanir off after what many would agree was a stellar conference call! Albeit, as I confirmed there was a technical call thus NO Q&A! At least we have 2 have conferences this coming week! Celgene, Jazz Pharmaceuticals did not go straight up on there amazing climb... I am VERY EXCITED about Avanir's long-term future! More buying by me this week, perhaps, although I already have way TOO MANY shares!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Sarge - Thank you for Saturday Report !!
      glta longs

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Thursday: The NAS has a mostly green day, gaining 15.1 points to 3,669.1. AVNR is only green for about a second, losing 8 cents or 1.71%, to close at $4.59. Volume is 1.5M. The range is $4.44 to $4.68.

      Friday: The NAS has another see-saw day, ending down by 9 points (0.25%) to close at 3,660.1. AVNR leaks air all day, losing 19 cents (4.14%) to close at $4.40. Volume was about average at 1.924M, and the range is from $4.305-4.67.

      Again, please look at the LOW price for each day this week:

      Monday: $4.91
      Tuesday: $4.73
      Weds: $4.61
      Thurs: $4.44
      Friday: $4.305

      That’s how you get a nice 10% correction. “Nice”? You’ll note I didn’t say “pleasant”. But necessary, if you’re going to see your gains last a while. A good bull appreciates the fact that corrections are a healthy part of the growth of a stock’s price. Appreciates, but does not savor…

      The last song is from “O Brother, Where Art Thou”. I just love the story and the song.


      I appreciate your indulging my musical tastes this weekend. This little dip is just part of the process. Why not enjoy the view as we go along?


      Sentiment: Buy

      • 6 Replies to reppeptgs
      • Hello Sarge – Thank you for the weekly round up, please accept my appologies for not replying over the weekend.

        Our friend Rzr puts a great twist on matters, however I may have to have a word with Rzr about rumours of complaining, what does Rzr want he can get all the entertainment he could wish for right here on the board.

        All the very best and have an enjoyable week.

        Sr Falconi

        Sentiment: Hold

      • Great report as always Sarge..
        I'm sure these reports are not quite as rewarding to do on a down week but I think your time will come. Best of luck to you.

      • The close, after hours, is $4.41 !!!!!

        Semper Fidelis

      • Sarge, thanks for another report that is strong on perspective. We complained in the twos and threes. Perhaps we won't have that long to complain about being in the fours. One day in the not too distant future I'm sure we will be complaining about being stuck in the tens. I'm also that our short investors will reestablish positions as the pps increases. Hope that we have a few more years of independence to complain- perhaps in the 20s:-)

      • Hey Sarge...thanks for the report as always and I like your viewpoint on the needed correction before we resume an upward path. Personally, I think this was also a hard shakedown to lose weak hands before the next leg up. Sometimes when investors take profits as price go down, they don't get back in quick enough for the bounce back is always a strategy trying to figure out how much core position to hold and when to lock in profits. It will be interesting to see if this is a slow journey back up to 5 or a hard bounce. GLTA