Nice point mike. I used to post here a lot from last July through October, but after I learned everything I needed to know, I just have been sitting on my core here and waiting for 2008 since there was nothing to do, and there is really nothing to do for me now or know. I just checked here recently to see what's up out of curiosity and have been amazed at the bashers who really have no idea, speaking of charts and overbought and stuff. As if Wall street is just so stupid.
Great another rookie short trader testing his first short trade. Your about to get steam rolled. You think wall street doesn't realize they are hedged and this earnings report won't be great.
ah nat, don't take my word for it. They are long reads, but go ahead and read last years annual report and last June qtr and last sept qtr and judge for yourself.
The mines are not nearly played out. At current pace, like 70 years to go, but they are supposed to increase that pace by then end of 2008.
And yes, they lost many senior employees, and that cost production. Most of that is realized in that qtr ending 09-07, but I would expect a little more for the latest qtr. But, they have their own built in minor training type college and create new green but well trained at just what they do recruits at lower cost then the seniors that left.
They may report a loss last quarter, I hate that 20 million oz of Platinum hedged at just over 1,000 for that quarter, but forward life looks fantastic.
Again though, it is all about the price of PGMS.
ps, there could be a problem i dont know about.
notice i said only 9 mill oz of Platinum forward for qtr end 03-08. that was from qtr report ending 09-07. I did not like that report at all cuz just before the end of that qtr, the forward hedged 20 mill oz of plat for qtr ending 12/07, which was in my opinion a stupid thing. they made that decision when Plat was at year low month of 07.
Plus, they made a new contract with an auto client and signed that also when plat and pall were at thier lows for 07. They could have picked any other month, but no, that was the month they signed contracts. Seems they don't know when to enter contracts. So, for all i know, during the qtr ending 12/07, they may have entered more stupid hedges reducing millions and millions of potential revenue.
Still, if pgms hold, and the consenus is they will not only hold, but they will go up, SWC will start making killer money this year.
Look for Executive salaries and stock options to go way way up. Plus, look for another strike this june for the other union that expires then as they try and get their share.
And still, there will be plenty of money to go around.
Nah if you read their report sounds like their production is falling and they are having a harder time finding materail woth mining .Also lost alot of their senior miners .Sounds like the land is soon to be played out.Also sounds like employess are unhappy look the v.p just left.Also they are hedged .I think this stock goes down big time sooner than later after the next earning report shows losses again no wonder this stock is so highly shorted will see 6 again soon enough sounds like they are becoming more of a reclcling business than a mines business
The price right now is not about last quarter. It is about the future.
quarter ending sep 07 they produced over 90 million oz of Palladim at average sell price of 355.00
over 29 million of Platinum at average sell price of just over 1000.00
now this prodution was down from the year before by over 10% due to new mining techniques and residual effects of the stike
Current quarter, as in now earning, the PGMS are up so much that with only 9 million oz of Platinum forwared at 1100. that means an additional like 30-40 million dollars can currently be earned in the quarter we are in.
That more than makes them a nice and tidy profit for quarter ending 03/08 especially 6/08.
And since those mining techniques are supposed to increase production after all the bugs are worked out, this company can produce well over 50-70 million more dollars for quarter ending 06/08.
The thing is, will PGMS hold. That is the only thing keeping it under 20.00-30.00 as we speak.
Oh yeah, they have another mill coming online by the end of 2008 so 2009 will be killer. They are over 95% of capacity with thier mill which is one of the reasons why they needed better mining techniques.