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END Message Board

  • questinvest questinvest Feb 14, 2013 12:54 PM Flag

    This selling seems overdone.

    This is panic selling either on the fear that the financial challenges are too great due to debt or fear that there is more to the story or fear because the story was delayed (the company kept it quite until it was fixed). All these are about fear due to uncertainty. However, the reality is nothing is certain, we just have that perception of certainty or knowledge and it gives us comfort. Today, that comfort was rocked, for a while.

    Now the question is, "is the opportunity value of the company more than the stock price." I think the answer is, "yes." Of course, I could be wrong and, by experience, know that is true. Courage is stepping up when others are stepping back to either defend or pursue an opportunity.
    This problem caused a delay of about four months on this well. The company has other wells. Also, is sounds like a problem with this pipe was averted by having its shroud fail and break away before the pipe was put into production. That has been fixed. Sure there is a cost to the delay and repair, but is that worth 30 to 50 percent of the company? That haircut seems excessive. Of course, I could be wrong. Time will tell.

    Often, on large drops like this, there are margin calls which contributes to more selling and a lower price, the next day or two; however, at some point it might be a smart buy. It also happens that enough investors come on board and scoop up shares at the lows and more hesitant buyers come in as the price starts to climb again. Nobody knows, including me. But, the selling seems overdone for the percentage of harm this incident would seem to have caused this company.

    JMHO. Good luck, longs, for you are producers and job creators.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • I'm long END & look 4ward 4 a nice pay day. My concern is that the company had stated they're looking @ all options including merger or outright sale of the whole company. So wouldn't it B reasonable 2 assume that a potenially buying or merging company will have a vested intereset 4 further price drops (the cheaper the better), hence participate in accelerating the artificial price drop? Just a thought.

      Good luck 2 all longs!

      Sentiment: Hold

    • Yep. The panic selling is silly and by people who have never been on a rig.

      The simple fact is that drilling a well in a place like the North Sea is never easy and there are always problems BUT the oil is still down there and a few months delay is not going to destroy the company.

      • 1 Reply to no_duster
      • BRAVO, no_duster,
        finally someone who knows what they are talking about.
        FYI, there is a 25% short position on the stock and I suspect we have some of those yoyo's posting negative remarks that make no sense (kansasoildude being one of them).
        Funny thing about the oil business, the cash flow is strong and growing, and it is easy to spot postings on here from people who are either short sellers or have no clue what they are talking about. And know nothing about the oil business.

        Make Me Laugh

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • What about SteelHead Partners who upped their holding to almost 12% about 2 months ago, like to know their take on this,.. their only down 10Million or more..ouch! Think Transier will be gone and hopefully it's not to late to salvage this company.

    • END is using a new type of piping system they are not too familiar with. That concerns me. They never meet deadlines which is another concern. There Public relations really needs major improvements which concerns me as well. There reputation has caused shareholders to be quite leary. I was a long term investor in END but have learned that END is not a long term investment such as ALL. End is a stock that you get in at the lows and get out when you can before you develop an ulcer(hehe).
      I am still watching this stock in that I still feel there is potential especially at this low price but I am seriously taking into consideration of the EOY/quarterly report.

      • 1 Reply to guitar_pick13
      • Residential water pipes were iron, but the result was rust in water. Plus, the cost of installation was high because a pipe fitter was needed to thread the ends during installation.
        So, copper was used. It was lighter, never rusted and easier to install because it just involved solder and that was easier to learn and do well even by less experienced installers. Then we realized there was lead in solder, but that was remedied by switching to a no-lead solder. But copper became more expensive, so we switched to plastic hose. Plastic hose could be routed with far fewer joints and by a less experienced craftsman. It was also cheaper. Now, we think the plastic hose can be a carcinogen.
        No system is perfect forever. It can only be the best for a while.
        I am also concerned about getting things done on time and on budget, but I have little control over that and neither does management, though they may have slightly more control.
        Granted, I am disappointed by the stock price, as well, but also appreciate that most things are beyond the control of everyone and certain beyond the control of some.
        Good luck.

        Sentiment: Buy