Catalyst for a run up to $8.50 will be the first production at Rochelle
One of the analysts took a worst case scenario and suggested the first production will occur in 120 days with the production from Rochelle well number 2.
However, if there is any communications from the company that Rochelle number #1 passes all the safety, etc tests, East Rochelle (or well number #1) could be online within 90 days.
Now that would be an amazing catalyst.
Stay tuned as I will place some calls to Management for discussion.
I don't think the chances of getting the #1 well online before #2 are very good - probably less than 5%. I believe they moved the Transocean rig off #1 to go drill #2 because it will take some time to run the proper tests on #1 - which may conclude that some additional repair work is needed. They do not want to pay for an expensive rig (doing nothing) while this analysis and potential repair is being done. Moving the rig to drill #2 keeps it productive while they determine what is needed at #1. After they are done drilling #2, they can move the rig back to #1 and (hopefully) finish the job. They will not move it back to #1 until #2 is finished drilling (doesn't make sense). IMO
baby_face_finster, your posting is inaccurate.
where on earth do you come up with a probability of less than 5%. Do you have some confidentail information about the safety report and resumption of well production that the rest of us don't have?
Come on, you didn't even bother to follow the drilling plan for East and West Rochelle.
Blah blah blah moving rigs? are you out of your mind.
You entire posting is inaccurate. And your best to read up on the company press releases and drilling schedules.
Transocean rig #2 for the second operation has a separate and distinct set of equipment.
I guess all major failures are already priced in (but an environment desaster - hopefully never to come). The company has precious reserves, not the power yet to produce it - but 3$ are a steal. Ok, last drilling failed but hey, this is one hole from many not been drilled in time, and the price dropped again from 5$ to 3$ - this company has put itself on the table....
More difficult would it have been had they reduced the reserve estimates. I am in here for a play and hope for better news to come. And they have stil enough cash on their tables to operate until 2015. So BK is far away from now and tons of time for speculation..