It is certain the ABCP conversion will happen. Quebec who has an honorable govt. and now Ontario have joined the Can. Feds in backstopping t he new bonds.
Only the prov. of Alberta needs to come on board. From the Toronto Globe Sources close to the talks said they expect the foreign banks will want to close a deal now that there is support from two levels of government, even if the actual support is short of the $9.5-billion originally sought.
The success of the restructuring would be an immense relief to some of Canada's biggest financial institutions, as well as to hundreds of smaller investors stuck with the paper.
The biggest beneficiaries, in dollar terms, are the Caisse de depot et placement du Quebec, National Bank of Canada, Desjardins Group and a handful of other large pension plans.
Those institutions would likely survive the collapse of the ABCP deal, but would be battered and left facing holes in their capital. Under the broad terms of the deal, should it be finalized, they will now get new bonds in a swap for the old, frozen paper.
For the smaller investors, many of whom have their life savings in the paper, which was sold as a safe alternative to government bonds, a successful deal will mean they will finally get access to the cash that was locked up when the market froze in August 2007.