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Immune Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • lando4209 lando4209 Jan 25, 2008 12:24 PM Flag

    Valuation Question

    Assuming Ceplene approval in the EU and a sales partnership, does anyone have a guess as to first year sales and a valuation for EPCT? I've heard there is a 200 million market opportunity, but I don't know if I'd expect EPCT to capture all of that immediately even if this is the only treatment. I'm looking for estimates that don't try to provide a valuation for the rest of the pipeline, just for Ceplene approval alone. Any thoughts?

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    • "why no significant insider buying"

      I think you better do a little bit of research before you open your mouth.

    • well well well

      if if if

      why why wy

      Why so called smart money invested twice at higher price
      why SP so low?
      why no significant insider buying

    • Excellent! Good DD and very valuable to the rest of us. Keep it up!

    • From an older article:

      http://www.lifesciencesworld.com/news/view/10766

      ...EpiCept retains full marketing rights for Ceplene worldwide. Mr. Talley commented, �EpiCept�s strategy is to concentrate its future marketing efforts in the U.S. market. Consistent with that strategy, we anticipate selecting a partner to market and sell Ceplene in Europe following regulatory approval. In this regard, we will continue our discussions with prospective partners who have appropriate European distribution capabilities with a view towards identifying a partner for Ceplene next year. At a comparable cost of therapy relative to other cancer treatments, the market opportunity for Ceplene for this use alone in the European Union could exceed $300 million annually.�...

      ...AML is the most common form of acute leukemia in adults. There are approximately 47,000 AML patients in the EU, with 14,000 new cases occurring each year....

      Still nothing on price, but $300 million based on a patient population of 14,000 new patients per year gets you to around $21,000 per year per patient based on 100% market penetration. This estimate does not count the 47,000 people in the EU that currently have AML. So it seems my estimate of $4000 per patient above is way out of whack.

    • Surely it would be at least 50%! It would be easy money for someone. All the difficult stuff would have already been done and the market potential would be clear to see with very little risk. The partner would not even have had to pay out milestones. They could just open it up to tender and take the best offer, which is what I imagine they will do or perhaps are doing right now.

    • You ask a good question! But and that is a big but that even those within the company can't answer. How is anybody to know how sales will be? Maybe they will be better than expected, maybe the product has some real draw backs that cause sales to completely drop through the floor. All I know is this stock PPS is under valued, IMO.

 
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