the company officers issued themselves thousands of options at .63 on sept 8th, because they know the approval is coming soon and they want to cash in on it and get rich.
epct will go to over a 100 dollars a share very soon.
Believe me: I would love it if you turn out to be right. And I am the first to admit that I don’t know what percentage is customary and I did not spent a lot of time researching it. The two drugs I pointed out are approved drugs available at your local pharmacy. But I don’t know who carried the cost of clinical trials and approvals, and that certainly is a factor in determining the royalties. “50% to 80 or 90%” seems awfully high to me, let’s see what deal EPCT manages to put together for Ceplene!
As far as I understand this business, that's crap.
This is not a pre-clinical or phase 1 drug - we are talking about a drug that may soon be approved for sale in the biggest economy in the world - Europe. 5%, 10% etc. is not for drugs that are approved. 50% to 80 or 90% is what you are talking about.
I am worried it might take more than 67 days to get approval.
Just look at TEVA... They waited since FEB!!!
""The move had been expected, after Teva's product, TevaGrastim, won a positive opinion from the European Medicines Agency in February.""
Teva got a positive opinion on Feb 21, and then again on July 24:
On 24 July 2008, the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) adopted a positive revised opinion, recommending to grant a marketing authorisation for the medicinal product Tevagrastim, solution for injection or infusion (30 MIU/0.5 ml and 48 MIU/0.8 ml) in a pre-filled syringe intended for the treatment of neutropenia. The Applicant for this medicinal product is Teva Generics GmbH.
Could not identify any differences between them...
I ment to type:
5% deal: EPCT collects 10 million. 10 times that is 100 mil i.e $1.42/share.
10% deal: EPCT collects 20 million. 10 times that is 200 mil i.e $2.85/share.
I rounded the number of shares to 70 mil.
It is my understanding that EPCT is looking for a partner to commercialize Ceplene in Europe. So, it is the partner that would make the 200 million and EPCT would collect whatever royalties they manage to negotiate.
They key here is how much royalties. A brief scan though the Internet identified a range between 2% (Massachusetts General Hospital/Amgen for drug Enbrel) and 8% (Biota Holdings Ltd/GlaxoSmithKline for drug Relenza). Just to see how numbers work out let’s assume a 5% deal for EPCT and a 10% deal.
5% deal: EPCT collects 10 million. 10 times that is 100,000 i.e $1.42/share.
10% deal: EPCT collects 20 million. 10 times that is 200,000 i.e $2.85/share.
ultimately if the drug is approved and you have a few thousand shares you will be able to retire on this stock.
as far as right now it should go past 10 dollars as soon as the news comes out, because it has gone up close to 5 dollars just on rumors of approval, and with so few shares out there it should close in the mid 20 the first day or two.