I like Jonaustins scepticism to juniors in this industry. My sceptisism might be bigger than his , acctually. As a matter a fact this is the first, and, maybe :-), last time I invest in this sector. Special occations made me see this case.
Epicept will be a cash flow CO during the upcoming weeks. This will change the value of the portifolio and the value of the CO as whole.
The leverage is that Epicept in the future can found their own trails if they wants to and gain some 100% instead of a diluted percent, what ever.
In the EU there are som 40 000+ patients having the diagnosis of AML. In the rest of the world there is a midle class, sorry to say, that afford the therapy that is 2-3 times the population in Europe.
The average patient have a relative benefit versus "no treatment" of 46% Ceplene. The outcome for the patient group below 60 years is much better. I think it's fair to say that most of the demand for Ceplene comes from the patient groups up to 70 years old. The treatment of AML patients will, total costs, be less expensive and better using Ceplene at home.
The fact that there are no serious side-effects will give a demand among the older patients as well. Physicians choise under ethical rules.
I found Jonastins text on IL-2 alone, suprising: Haven't you seen that there are 5 studies with big populations that states that there are no significant effect of IL-2 alone versus "no treatment" (in fact the opposite was shown, look at the graphs...)? Watch the slides in some of the webcasts this spring.
The parallell slope of the plain curve in the east of the two graphs shows that LFS as years past = overall survival. The bigger N the lesser p-value, of course. This is a rare disease and N is what it is. People in the trail acctually dies. That's what we are discussing here. All that said, the P-value is there. The more years we add strengthen the tendency in the material, given no change. Talking about the total average group, not the younger part...
What about the rest of Epicept? I have basically the same opinion as jonaustin, except for one case:
Epicept already have NP-1 running in a phase III trail versus cancer pain since 2 years back. Ending next year. The cream contains two substances, each approved by the FDA as oral theraphy. One aim is to show how long the substances remain after application in the boddy is of course already tested in the phase III trail. That's what FDA wants to know except efficiancy. Which BP afford not to have the cream as a combained alternative, if THAT FACT increases the competitors share of the market? Nice side-effect discussion here.
Of course BP will be informed about the rolling PIII trails. For me the upcoming agreement on new PIII in combination trials with the excisting theraphies about the USD 4-6 billion market is a "after drilling" event. I think/hope the upfront will be nice given negotiations can be held while cash flow rolls into the CO.
Azixa is a, eventhough nice, bonus until otherwise is confirmed. News pending from Myriad when boosting the CO split?
Crinobulin have in the resent stage been held as one of the best potential VDAs. Here I think DD gives value to the investor. (Antisoma.) Crinobulin is like Azixa a "before drilling" event. Right now.
Some 5 houres before the mother of all fotball games: Sweden - Denmark.
I didn’t follow EPCT closely so don’t laugh if the question sounds too simple
“Epicept will be a cash flow CO during the upcoming weeks”
This is based on ? any link or materials to back up the claim ?
Is EPCT traded the same pattern in US and in Europe?
If I understand correctly company currectly has three important issues
1. Sale of Ceplene Information won’t be available till next qr or late of this year? 2. FDA approval of Ceplene timeline is about this year? 3. Dilution The impact or need of this factor depends on above two issues.
I am very interested in EPCT and appreciate any comments and suggestions.
1. Ceplene will be sold under the new agreement from 06/02 (June 2d). Please watch today's webcast, Epicept homepage.
2. Follow the trade pattern of Epicept on Avanza.se or at DI.se "stockwatch". There is a difference BTW SEK/USD moves. 3. Sales of Ceplene under the new agreement will mayby find it's way in to Q2. But absolutly Q3. I think that there will be a release about the initial sales. The agreement is a world market one, still running after a European deal.
4. FDA. Application Q4, fast track application. 2010 2H.
5. Dilution. Listen to Q&A in the same webcast as above.
6. Year end target? There is a before and after: + sales under the new agreement. Gross revenue? + agreement on European sales of Ceplene +agreement on NP-1
7. Phase III on cancer pain started late fall 2007. Official endpoint 2010. Look in the annual reports the two last years. The (two) pII is some other diagnosis.
Excellent post! This stock is undervalued at less than $3 or $4 a share - I'm going to work some of the numbers, look at various potential revenues and up front payments, and dilution...I haven't done this in a while, I want to get an idea of what the stock should be valued at, if I'm able to complete this weekend, I'll post.