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Immune Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

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  • larshansson18 larshansson18 Jun 11, 2009 5:34 PM Flag

    Things are so tight

    1. Will there be a demand from the patient group waiting for a medicine to give some persons the chance of continued life? Yes or no?

    2. The agreement, will there be some bureaucrazy that make some physician to hesitate asking for the drug. Leaving their patient behind? We do not yet know.

    3. What I think we can presume is that Epicept have a quite large network over the European continent through their trails and work throughout the years. Acctually. They have lifted the phone and asked their friends to order.

    4. When some patients get, others not... the ball starts to roll. We will have a patient demand from the physicians.

    As mentioned before, the cancer patients and their relatives, are very well informed on/by the net. They are puched against the wall, some 24 h aday.

    Bottomline: There are some good reasons for the sales to be surprisingly good in this summer.

    Every new patient has a 10 cycle of three weeks during 18 month.

    Maybe the first week there will be ordered to some 100 patients. Or more.

    Please, make a calculation of the scenario that there will only be 100 new patients each month from now on. Will we have a dilution? :-)


    I see potential here, where some seeks to grab for the dillution gost. On the other hand, given the first figures from sales the leverage will be bigger IF there are some people that are afraid of the gost.

    You can buy before and after. You are alone in your choise.

    NP-1, Azixa, ASAP and Crinobulin.

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    • Here are my revenue calculations over the next 3 months assuming 100 new patients a month - total 300 patiens

      Per Epct, Ceplene is worth 150m - 200m a year in revenue
      there are 40,000 patients

      100 patients is .0025 percent of 40,0000

      If ceplene is worth 150m Revenue looks like this:
      1st Month - 375k
      2nd Month - 750k
      3rd Month - 1.125k
      Total: 2.25 Mil

      If Ceplene is worth 200m Revenue, looks like this
      1st Month - 500k
      2nd Month - 1M
      3rd Month - 1.5M
      Total: 3 Mil

      Lets call it 2.6 Million Revenue if Ceplene gets 100 patients a month, and assume margin of 50%, this leaves 1.3 million profit.

      That will not be enough to keep them from diluting, but a steady revenue stream will give them other options besides dilution.

      In the above scenario though, I would still expect dilution. That's okay, as long as the stock price goes up! It would go up more obviously if they find more attractive financing.

      Also, by around month 5, they can cover their burn - that would be November, at 100 patients a month, they have enough funds to get through December as it is now. Interesting stuff.

      • 1 Reply to kentuckyfried99
      • You make mistake on calculation.

        "Per Epct, Ceplene is worth 150m - 200m a year in revenue
        there are 40,000 patients

        100 patients is .0025 percent of 40,0000"

        So, if it's 40,000 patient, 100/40000 is 0.25%
        if 40,0000 ( why different number?), 10/40,0000 is 0.025, not 0.0025.

        Now the future looks like much brighter, right?

        In your other post,
        "Epct remains a risky stock, my argument stands - it has way more upside than downside"

        Why is a risky stock? what's the downside except possible dilution in the near future?


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