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  • wisdomapply wisdomapply Jun 11, 2009 11:52 AM Flag

    Things are so tight

    .81 floor tweezer bottom .87 tweezer top. The market will break soon. All it takes one big order or news. Upside getting more and more clear. 100 day about to cross 200 day.

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    • Sorry my bad 100day avg. Market already over the volume line. Measured move now between the bulls and the bears support is .98 to 1.00. This will be fun to watch today. Stay sharp...

    • Look for 416,454 for Volume break. We will have support under the market this time no sale off. Close over 1.00 today. 50day avg will cross the 200day avg for the golden cross.

    • UPDATE market now .84 3 days in a row .87 3 days in a row.
      Over the past 10 days volume total 3,369,200 / 10days =336,920. Close price for 10 days = 8.33 / 10days =.833. On June 4th we hit 1million shares the market traded between .79 to .84 close .80 open .83. What will HE do today I think the big order will come today look for volume above 336,920 and range .94 to .84 close at .89.

    • Do we need a dilution late fall if Ceplene will be ordered some 100 each month?

      You have to know this:
      The price is expected to be +/- 3 500 USD / month. Seen as a price per month you may see the cumulative development: 100 first month, 200, 300 , 400, 500, 600 ...october - november set your own limmit.
      Gross revenues: 350000+ 700000+ 1050000 + 1450000 +1750000= 5250000 USD

      The point is: For each month there will be a cumulativ increase in grossrevenues. Each month following brings even more to the CO.

      A treatment cycle is 18 month.

      Let's hope there is an increasing demand that is bigger than the 100 / month after 1.5 years :-)

      Of course you may/should take away the IDIS share.
      No problem. Every month added is on the margin everything else but a signal on dilution.

      On the contrary... :-)

    • PS, any stock that has increasing dilution, and no earnings is a risky stock, at least as far as my risk tolerance goes - if it is not a risky stock for you, then you're the Man/Woman! I would hate to play Russian Roulette with you!!

      Since Epicept probably can't borrow for less than guessing 18% right now, with a convertible warrant clause in a covenant - I'd say just about everybody considers them a risky stock, so do the auditors that label them as a "Going Concern", as they have for the last three years at least. The downside is a big fat BK, and 0 stock value. I however, believe Ceplene a lone could be worth $6 a share conservatively, I wrote a post on that too, because I'm crazy! Feel free to check that math as well :)

    • Not sure I follow what you are saying. Yes, it .25%, that's what I said, expressed as a decimal .0025. That number represents 40,000 (European market size estimated by Epicept) divided by 100 patients a month. This equals .0025 (.25%), multiply that by the estimated size of the market 150m - 200m and you get 375,000 - 500,000 dollars for every month you receive 100 new patients.

      Also, 40,000/10 is .00025, or .025%, which would be 10 patients a month, which would equate to 37,500 - 50,000 a month, significantly worse. I hope they get thousands of patients a month.

      I answered your question last night about all the downsides, but I think you mistake me for a bear on Epicept, actually, I think I'm the biggest bull on the bulletin board (at least in recent times), and have been accumulating for several years now.

      I'm not sure I understand exactly what you are saying. But to be clear, i was just building off the 100 patient estimate that started this thread.

    • After Canada news and partner / dilution will hit the tape. only a matter of time...

      • 1 Reply to wisdomapply
      • Dilution will really depend on European sales. If we figure 2mil a month in OPEX, then it would seem reasonable that they would not need to dilute if revenues were somewhere around 4million a month. I have no clue what Sales are going to look like, will be paying very close attention to their next Q. It would be very intresting to know margin, and what they are selling Ceplene for.

        I don't know how much these other trials are costing, it would be nice to get an upfront payment for something so they don't have to dilute - if they could, I guess thats pie in the sky.

        I guess we should expect dilution to be a likelihood before the end of the year, but I would be surprised if it happens before September, or before the price goes over $1.

    • MM palying games we know and they know what's going to happen. They can't hold it down much longer with all the avgs rising. Soon 1.08 will be on the board. I hope they support it and then the news from Canada then partner.

    • I'm seeing that, RSI also establishing new trending lines, but very strong resistance around .87...Upper Bollinger band is getting "higher" we could trade within the bands up to .92 right now. Resistance will be broken with solid pr announcement, but I think no news is going to continue to loweer support and resistance.

      What's up with all the tiny trading blocks????

 
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