1 - The afterhours price movement on a few thousand shares was meaningless, and I agree, was indeed probably a ploy.
2 - The share increase will be approved next week.
3 - The PPS will begin to decline into the 0.60s soon.
4 - Any revenue from the IDIS program will be minimal for reasons I've already discussed.
5 - If there is no ceplene partnership announced very soon (I'd say within a few weeks), there will be none, and they will be forced to self-launch. But they have no expertise to be able to be successful in such an effort.
6 - My preliminary research into NP1 leads me to believe that there will be little interest by big pharma to partner it.
7 - Azixa will most certainly fail in melanoma trials, but may have some promise in brain cancer. In which case, MYRX is a far smarter way to play that possibility (but much later in the year.)
In summary, my outlook for EPCT is rather bleak and I see their options as very limited.
EVEN with a partnership soon, the terms will mostly likely not be game changing, they will still need to raise cash with further dilutions to come.
The best and only option to unlock shareholder value is an outright sale of the company and rather quickly before the goon squad burdens the company more than they already have with additional debt and diluted stock.
Maybe, maybe not.
The point that you can't seem to grasp is that EVEN in the best of hands, NP1 is years away from having ANY value if ever, and will only be a money pit until then.
And in THESE hands, this situation is made all the worse, all the less likely to achieve any degree of success.
SO AGAIN, by any objective measure, NP1 has a NEGATIVE value now and in the foreseeable future.
Anyone who today is buying shares because of the "promise" of NP1 is a fool being suckered by the "deep and promising" pipeline line of crap EVERY scam and quasi-scam microcrap biotech purveys.
Don't you think there is room for one more that covers both the DPN (diabetes) and CPN (cancer) ?
"Overview: This report estimates that Peripheral Neuropathy (PN) and Neuropathic Pain (NP) affect 170 to 270 million individuals globally. PN and NP are causally linked to a number of diseases, however diabetes, cancer and HIV alone are expected to increase the prevalence of PN and NP by more than 10% by 2012. PN and NP are areas of significant and critical unmet need. There are no cures for PN and NP is difficult to treat and often unresponsive to all available therapies. Today's armoury of drugs for the treatment of NP shows significant reliance on "second-indication" drugs, which were initially developed to treat other primary indications (e.g. anticonvulsants, antidepressants)"
No I'm not a MD.
The answer to your questions is I don't know.
- Investing in stocks is always a risk, especially small cap.
- Never invest money you simply cannot afford to lose.
- Do your own analysis.
1. - This must be one of your predictions? It is more likely that a swedish investor postioned himself/herself with a small amount of shares, because of the news of Epct beign reomoved from the watch-list. They might be anticpating a big day, and spent a couple bucks, this was only 2,700 shares....lol, I'm confident this isn't the stuff of conspiracy, and if it were, prison sentences would be dealt swiftly. This could have also been a mistake, but I don't think anyone should be losing sleep over this illeged "ploy" :)
2. Agree, share increase will be approved next week and should be. Dilution is much cheaper than issuing debt with embedded warrants...Again Hurcules, they received more warrants in a debt restructuring, penalty payments.
3. PPS in the .60's...possibly, right now though, I would predict that we will hit the .80's again before we go to the .60's. The only reason to go to .60's is markets poor interpretation of dilution.
4. Strongly disagree. With about 100 patients a month, EPCT can cover Operating Expenses and R&D expenses by October. By 1st QE that means EARNINGS, and positive cash flow generation from operating activities...lol, I wouldn't call that mininimal, I would call that MONUMENTAL!!! IMO :)
5. Strongly Disagree. I believe Ceplene opporturnities have presented themselves, but big pharma is trying to strong arm epicept because of their weak cash position. At some point, with additional cash, and the cash they generate with IDIS, they will receive a better offer.
6. NP1 - I haven't done enough analysis here to argue, so I'll give this one to you.
7. Myriaid clearly is not the better play, you can't even compare the potential draw down, and potential capital gains - Epct is less risky in terms of how far down the stock can actually go, and in all likelihood will be trading at several dollars a share in the next year or so. Strongly disagree with you there.
At 40% margin, considering full dilution of all shares authorized right now, and all warrants exercised, Ceplene a lone makes Epct worth $3.00 a share. The US market will add another $3 to that. Canada will add another $2 to that. This of course doesn not attempt to value their pipeline. That makes Ceplene worth $8 a share - FDA approval is probable. That's $8 per share value off of one drug. The stock trades at .74 cents per share.
I don't even know why we are debating NP1 right now. It is totally irrelevant right now, next year, next three years, in fact. A solid ceplene deal is the ONLY thing that matters.
I stand by my "worthless" assessment of NP1 because even IF you think it has some ultimate value, it will only be a net cash drain for years to come. So as far anyone here and now should be concerned, its worse than worthless, its a net loser.
Unlike my friend above, I'm not going to write a treatise on the pain market etc to convince you otherwise, but it will NEVER be partnered, and even if you believe it will be, it won't occur prior to end of PIII.
So why are we talking so much about it? The only thing that matters is 1) ceplene deal, and 2) the July 2 meeting, neither of which anyone seems to be concerned with, which amazes me, and certainly makes it easy to understand how these goons don't seem to have problems stringing investors along year after year.
"I am aware of the NGSX deal, and it supports my thesis that NP1 is too early, the market is in PNP and diabetes care"
Let me clarify things for you so you don't get confused.
Neuropathic pain is divided into:
- Peripheral neuropathic pain
- Central neuropathic pain
- Mixed (peripheral and central) neuropathic pain.
The Peripheral neuropathic pain the "PNP" can then be divided into DPNP caused by the disorder diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN), chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy (CPN), peripheral herpetic neuropathy (PHN) and so on..
The NP-1 covers these areas
- DPN (diabetic peripheral neuropathy)
- CPN (chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy)
- PHN (chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy)
"I am aware of the NGSX deal, and it supports my thesis that NP1 is too early, the market is in PNP and diabetes care"
You have mixed things up Jon, NP-1 is just targeting perhiperal neurotic path not the central neurothic path, where did you get that idea from?
NP-1 is also targeting DPN as described above and you are right that there is a huge market in PNP and NP-1 is targeting all the major areas, that's why NP-1 is so interesting for BP.
"The NGSX deal"
- Not so strong phase-II data" 42% compared to NP-1 60%,both studies
were "double blind,placebo-controlled",according to you worthless.
- Failed to cover the DPN area
- NDA filed
- EMEA approved
- Partner agreement within three months after approval
That's says everything about the interest from BP in the PNP area.
- Strong phase II/IIb data
(compared it with other products phase-II data)
- Covers major areas in PNP
- Starting Phase III (PHN) later this year
- Expecting result from the (400 patient) Phase III (CPN) study in
I still want to see a product that is as effective as gabapentin (Pfizers blockbuster $3 billion/year drug) and has a superior safety profile when compared with gabapentin, especially with regard to dizziness and somnolence, that's what I think makes NP-1 unique.
The potential for NP-1 is huge.
"Gabapentin remains the gold standard treatment to beat in the 5 EU and US neuropathic pain markets, which are estimated at a combined total of $2,543m in 2005, reaching $4,118m in 2007"
Lets see the outcome later this year and good luck with your investments.
Jonaustin does what the rest of the surrender group do not: He have no positive view on the therapies Epicept are working with.
- Ceplene "must" have some problems otherwice there would already be an agreement.
+ No matter what is scientifically shown about efficacy. EMEA e t c No matter the list that is possible to make of small poor CO beeing pressed by Big Ph.
- He is not commenting the possible yes for Ceplene from FDA. He states that IL-2 has a monotherapy efficacy versus five trials showing the opposite (N=800+).
+ My own view on the FDA issue is more and more positive, though I remain cautious. Need to know more about the FDA dicision rutines (before and after drilling-perspective).
I see NP-1 and, maybe, Azixa as bonus that I have recieved while waiting for the Ceplene cash flow. But there are limits of what un scientific reasoning performed by Jonaustin that my just past by:
Azixa is concentrated in the brain some 15 times. True or not? Azixa enhance the cytostatic combination drug lessening the resisten lines in the cell. True or not?
Why this attack now, why not wait for the results to be presented? Share price predictions that have failed?
+ I don't know if the metastases from other mother tumors is not possible to fight when the cytostatica is made efficient again and finding a path together with Azixa to the brain. Acctually Jonaustin knows that. Why not relay on science instead of belief?
There is reported positive results, see Myriads homepage. Other scientiests finds it interesting. Epicepts CEO mention briefly that it "looks good" while saying it's for Myriad to report the results. Myriad starts new trails with Azixa, indicating they see what Jonastin cannot.
Still, for me Azixa is not yet proved. It might be a bonus....:-) But the world below is not here yet.
Jonastin attacks NP-1 results. Will he be joined by the longs here?
- NP-1 was "inferior" to gabapentin, he states. Whitout science in the back: The trail indicated that the efficacy was the same with a tendency in the figures that NP-1 was more efficacy, but the last statement was not, "at this stage", possible to show to be significant. We need a bigger N. - "Inferior", sources please.
The results is easier to have as significant in trails where the patients know there pain because it is latent. When it lessens the patient feels the difference. In trails where the patient might, because of other reasons, have less pain the outcome is harder to get significant. That's my own interpretation.
Cancerpain is one third of the pain market in question. 4-5 million patients. No competitors have any therapy here. Epicept have a ongoing phase III. Please, Jonaustin.
The ongoing phase III is of importance for the negotiations on next phase III partner. The data from the current trail lessens the risks for the partner.
Epicept management have taken a very smart approach in the negotiations: We might serve as a networker with NP-1. Combination trails with several parties? Who can afford their treatment is not available with a combination of The Cream - if it leads to a minor market share?
I see potential for a big upfront for Epicept. NP-1 has scientifically shown to be a nice bonus for me as a shareholder.
Let your anger flow away and test severel perspectives, Jonaustin.
Have to correct my self, Jonaustin acctually writes: "- It demonstrated NON-Inferiority to gabapentin, not superiority, and the supposed advantages with respect to adverse effects were minimal and minor. Every candidate can cherry pick supposed AE advantages out of PII data."
My points stands, but the correct related thesis of Jonaustin should be "NON-inferior", not inferior.
My point was that there are an even better result in the trail and that the side effect i huge here. Acctually, given the efficacy results, it is the point. There is a big abuse of gabapentin.