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Immune Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • larshansson18 larshansson18 Aug 13, 2009 3:07 PM Flag

    New presentation of Epicept

    On this link you find some 38 slides about Epicept.

    Notis:

    Management is confident on the FDA application, se the graphs on the non-efficacy of IL-2.

    Crinobulin do not just have less just less toxicity than other VDAs, but is superior to other VDAs when it comes to efficacy.

    "Meaningful" income from Ceplene is expected at Q2 2010.


    http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/EPCT/654640171x0x135023/19a43c2d-e79b-4ffa-a4d5-eff079900906/0907-Corporate%20Presentation.pdf

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    • "Meaningful" income from Ceplene is expected at Q2 2010."


      is this your word or from EPCT ( and slide #?)

      • 3 Replies to waveno1
      • "Meningful" it's not my word, please have a look at the presentation.

        For the new ones: a whole treatment is ten cycles performed during 18 month. The price for a treatment is 45 000$. The fee to IDIS is "very small" states Talley in an mail answer:
        "Thank you. The fees we pay Idis are very small. Best regards, Jack Talley." (Avanza board)

        The Swedish connection:
        Epicept bought the Swedish CO "Maxim" and their cancer patents. Kristoffer Hellstrand have had his rights in Maxim. The work in the second city of Sweden, Göteborg, and their University hospital, Sahlgrenska, is the start of Ceplene. There is a big network built up under 20 years of work. Some of the fathers of this work have retired but have contributed a lot. (That said: Yes, the fat lady sings...)

        Yes there are some small step trading in Sweden, but there is also a "concrete support" at current levels i Swedish SEK. We will leave this levels after news. Promise. :-)

        Now is the time when authorities in the different countries will give Ceplene the official practical status of being the medicine in their lists that you acctually should prescribe as a physician have given a patient the relevant diagnosis. Many small steps towards a major move in sales.

        As for Asia I don't know. Japan is already in the network. China, there Epicept made another deal last summer. This is a relevant question, though. Please send it forward to management. Of course this is a part of the partner deal, or not.

        Do not under estimate the network and determination of this management.

      • okay root, I came over to check it out from altu. Looks okay, actually you are right, it is a very good company, but how did they manage to have this pps? I don't quite get it, why they sit here from last year when, as you said, correctly, they have quite a pipeline--any market revenue estimates for cepline? (sp) Why is the NDA in the US the one that is backburnered over Canada? What was the pps on the dilution (including the remaining interest payments or excluding them) What is there presence in China? India? South America? How come everyone seems to think mgt is incompetent? and why are swedes shorting this stock--what do they know in Sweden? Do they sell in Sweden? What the hell does sweden have to do with this company? I'll do some more DD--but I am puzzled--your spike before the cc to near a dollar--how come it didn't go higher? If shorts are your problem then they would have taken this to 1.50 imho--I see a good play but just need some more answers.

      • Meaningful = no more need for financing.


        $150 million in Europe x 20% = $30 million immediate uptae and I'm being conservative here. Without Ceplene people die, everyone will want it, watch and learn


        Root

    • "Meaningful" income from Ceplene is expected at Q2 2010."

      You said it's not your word. So which slide has above information???? Total 38 slide, it's slide #?


      Key words. " Meaningful" income and Q2 2010."

    • Thanks Lars - blockbuster potential for sure.

      Root

    • I feel all warm and fuzzy after reading that

    • All you looking for is speculating and far way from the reality. What's the reality? SP can't hold at .8


      If what you said is true as below,
      "There will be a demand before and after the reimbursment agreements. It's a question of life and death for the patients.

      Is the treatment known? Yes, the patients aggressively search the web for solutions"

      Then how can you explain one year after approval, still can't sell anything?!
      Or in another words, even what you said is true, the reality is EPCT still can't sell anything. They wasted one year and can easily waste another year. why not? what has been changed except millions more shares on the market?

      "Is it a big risk to invest in Epicept before the sales figures is out? As I see it, above: No"


      Very good. Last Friday close EPCT 0.72. I see easily 15-30% down side. If that's not big risk to you. well, it's your money.

    • There is a support line in SEK that have some 40% up slope for a year. I have bought on this line during the year. At first I just had some 2-300 000 shares, now I have some more :-). Yes, it's my money. :-)


      Do we have a agreement with IDIS from this summer, or have I missed something here? I think that is a fact.

      My prediction about patients knowledge about treatments on the net, let's call that speculation. :-)

      My point that the demand for Ceplene is a question of life and death is a fact, and the opinion that the patients have that state of mind is not worth discussing. Let us show some respect for their situation.

      "Demand before and after the reimbursment agreements" - I use my self as a messure here: What would I do, given a diagnosis? If the agreements would be in 3-4 month, would I wait for the treatment and not paying the first 1/3 part my self?

      "Then how can you explain one year after approval, still can't sell anything?!
      Or in another words, even what you said is true, the reality is EPCT still can't sell anything."

      Why mixing the negotiation time with the potential of selling through IDIS?

      "Is it a big risk to invest in Epicept before the sales figures is out? As I see it, above: No"

      If you have the opinion that there is no demand for Ceplene the upcoming 8-10 month, stay out. If you have the opinion that B Ph have the same opinion. Stay out.

      For your reference: Read about other orphan drugs and their introduction in the market. Articles about IDIS as a way of initially reaching the market.

    • "Don't get me wrong, I like the potential of this company and that's why I spend time here. But I won't pull the trigger until I can see something real, e.g. the "meaningful" sale numbers. "

      I am in this play for the cashflow of Ceplene to get a valuation at a p/e-ratio at 10. What is the underlaying sales for this calculation?

      Will there be a demand for Ceplene at 45 000$ for the whole treatment?

      In the beginning of the fall there will be national meetings among hematologists to decide if Ceplene should be on the list of recommended treatments to prevent from relaps in AML.

      Ceplene is the only existing treatment. My perception here is very positive.

      There will be a demand before and after the reimbursment agreements. It's a question of life and death for the patients.

      Is the treatment known? Yes, the patients aggressively search the web for solutions.

      Is it a big risk to invest in Epicept before the sales figures is out? As I see it, above: No. Make your own investment decision. The support for these share prices in SEK in Stockholm is robust.

      While waiting for the European agreement on Ceplene I have recieved two other potential movers of share price: Agreement on NP-1 inte phase III and the sales of the ASAP-platform (Source for Azixa and Crinobulin).

      You might buy later together with the rest of the market. We have acctually an orphan drug being introduced to the market. The slope of the demand curve for an orphan drug is steeper than any given drug in the market just giving a better life than before.

      The figures: Half of the patients will go through the whole treatment, the other half will die along a slope of the curve during the 18 month treatment. Some 60% of the patients demanding cycles that summarize to an 18 month eqvivalent? "Very small" fee to IDIS, is that below 10%?
      As mentioned in other posts the price is 45 000$.

      How many new patients per month would be a conservative prediction?

      You have to take that risk by your own, I have taken mine... :-)

      Next year I hope to own a part of Epicept that have made 3 agreements and recieved huge upfronts. Epicept also at that time have a potent cashflow.

      Upon that you have the potential of the Azixa case. Not yet medically proven, but showing interesting results.

    • Thank you Lars!

    • Well thanks guys, for the detailed DD, and it seems to be a pretty good bet at these levels--I will join in a week or so, if some funds open up. The feeling on the board is resolute, a little strained but defiant and that matters most to me I suppose, strange as that sounds.

 
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