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Immune Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • larshansson18 larshansson18 Aug 22, 2009 11:20 AM Flag

    The effacacy of Ceplene

    I wrote this on a Swedish thread today:

    (Summary: The efficacy of Ceplene in the patient group below 60 years of age is excellent. Almost the double number of patient survive after taken Ceplene, or 50% of the total group of the patients taking the medicine. Look at the two different graphs in Hellstrands presentation on the annual meeting.

    In Europe the new patient group under 60 years of age is appr. 7 000. Half of this group, if following the whole treatment of ten cycles, is enough to reach the goal of sales for USD 150 000 000 at the price of 45 000 per whole treatment.

    Titta på de slides som Kristoffer Hellstrand hade på årsstämman:

    För patienter under 60 år överlever över 50% av den totala behandlade patientgruppen. Uttryckt på annat sätt: Det är mer än 75% (kanske närmare 100%) fler som överlever med Ceplene än de som är utan den behandlingen. Nästan dubbelt så många överlever.

    Det är därför jag på dessa sidor har försökt vara tydlig med att det finns en kärngrupp av yngre som starkt efterfrågar medicinen. Medianåldern för AML är lite olika i olika länder (63-71 år). Jag har tidigare haft synpunkten att eftersom inte behandlingen har några relevanta bieffekter så kommer efterfrågan att vandra upp i åldrarna. Att inte ta överlevnadschansen kommer för äldre patienter vara ett relativt dyrt pris om livet ligger i ena vågskålen.

    Utan att ha vetenskapligt belägg för detta är min känsla att patienterna mellan 60-70 år kommer att efterfråga Ceplene till den grad att en stor del av bortfallet från döende patienterna i den yngre gruppen under 60 år kan anses kompenserad. (En del patienter dör under behandlingen och efterfrågar inte Ceplene. Detta följer kurvan i Hellstrands graf.)

    Framtida försäljning av Ceplene får visa om jag har rätt.

    Vi befinner oss just nu i en period när vi som aktieägare inte vet hur försäljningen går. Min poäng med detta inlägget är att påminna om den stora effekt som Ceplene har för en patientgrupp om c a 7 000 patienter i EU, den nya yngre patientgruppen varje år. Om knappt hälten av dessa genomgår full behandling uppfylls Epicepts prediktion om 150 milj USD i omsättning / år. Räknat på priset 45 000 USD / behandling.

    Omläsning: Om hälften av den yngre patientgruppen går hela behandlingen så blir omsättningen USD 150 milj.

    Glaset är ibland halvfullt, ibland halvtomt. På vilka grunder kan man tveka om att de yngre patienterna inte kommer efterfråga Ceplene?

    + Att patienterna inte har sökt på internet och funnit att det finns en behandling via IDIS.

    + Att patienter inte är beredda att betala den första delen av behandlingen själva, givet att försäkringsavtalen dröjer ett antal månader.

    Det sägs att man skall vara frisk för att orka/kunna erhålla vård. Låt oss hoppas att de anhöriga är ett gott stöd härvidlag.

    + Dagens cancerpatienter är snabbt uppdaterade på nätet och

    + en stor grupp patienter lär inte ta risken att skjuta upp sin behandling ett halvår för att spara 100 000 kr om det är priset man får ta för att komma till behandling så snart som möjligt. Gå till dig själv och fundera hur du skulle gjort.

    Det kommer att sippra lite här och där under den kommande tiden. Kanske sitter vi med ett europa-avtal endera morgonen när vi slår på datorn. Oavsett detta så är det den grundläggande efterfrågan ovan som är grunden för allt detta. Så när shorters antyder att partners inte är intresserade p g a att Ceplene är svagt, hänvisa dem till Hellstrands dragning på årstämman.

    När tiden är mindre knapp återkommer jag med funderingar runt tillämpningar av Ceplene mot andra diagnoser."

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    • Lars you seem to know a lot about EPCT; is there another MB where you post your analysis?

      • 1 Reply to chinnois18_5_6
      • I use to write on "Börssnack" on That is the largest daily business paper in Sweden.

        The translation in Google is not of the most poetic language, and my English is poor, but if you are patient you might click on my signature "Gruvgunnar" and read my texts about Epicept. I have changed some of the last parts of the text recently. You can also see my development over time as an Epiceptian :-) if you read it all. There is another possibility: Search for "författare" and write "gruvgunnar" and choose a date (eg. 2009-01-01 to "idag" (means today).

        May I recommend "Malenurse" at search for epicept. He works with AML patients. Pirenz and El julio are also very interesting to read at the same board. Not to forget to upcoming stars: Amor and flex2 that both makes there own heavy DD!

    • Ty Lars!!
      Good info!!

    • There is is a basic demand for Ceplene, that is the summary of the last message from EMEA. The demand is from each single patient / doctor. The Supplier is IDIS. No one else.

      The relation is between the doctor / patient and IDIS.

      (So the discussion about management is way of, if it is cash-flow you are interested in.

      I have, from sources that I trust, a very good valuation of the work in the subject matter here. Just you wait and see the agreement on Europe before you bark.

      A path to follow for those who want to have this discussion is to valuate the network management have created. This network will give us high class studies enhacing the value of each diagnosis under study. The right names at the most interesting places. Look at the names for the EU study, the next combination studie for Ceplene, the Crinobulin 1b study... This is a very important job done by professionals.

      So I heard. :-) )

    • I have been followed EPCT for a while and believe this stock has great potential. I will put EPCT on top 10 based on potential ( small biotech stocks)

      However, this stock also has an big concern about mgmt.

      Rgith now the major issue about this stock is not about potential but execution. Until wall street can see some real money either something from the sales or new deals with some $$$ in the contract, this stock will go nowhere if not south ( with more dilution). imo

    • Sorry Lars!!::)
      Uppfattade inte ditt färska meddelande!!
      MVH Kenta

    • Patients per month and income enough next spring to avoid dilution, that might be seen as a timeline for some readers, but not for you. You your self can not contribute.

      For those readers here interested in the nearest future:

    • Since you avoid answering my question and give a timeline. I assume you have no idea when EPCE can sale anything, so even after another year wihtout selling anything, you will keep saying the excately same thing , will you?

    • Ceplene is distributed through IDIS.

      The efficacy in patients younger than 60 is excellent.

      Are there any other obstacles you see than that the treatment not yet is known to everybody out there?

      The first hit on "aml treatment named patient program" searching on Google is "EpiCept Partners With IDIS For Ceplene® Named Patient ..."

      It's rational to wait for the next step in the information flow, even it might be more expensive.

      Try this one, search for other CO who have introduced their orphan drug through IDIS. It's already out there for you.

      As for the metaphor of the value of only one house I think my position here is rubust. Hope you will succed with yours, with or without any opinion about the upcoming market.

    • My point is you said there is no risk, and I see 15-30% downside is a big risk. It's gut feeling, nothing for sure. So I am waiting sideline. If you really that confident as you said, you should sell you house to be on it. why not?

      Regarding your question
      "what is your fair prediction of the sales the first 3 month? "

      Sale number is what really counts. But what do you mean first 3 month? Start NOW?

      OK, here is question for you, yoo first believe there should be some "significant" sale number couple of months ago, based on whatever. Results? nothing!, then based on same whatever, now you are " confident , very optimistic". The question is when will you admit you are wrong, in case there is no sale at all?

      Another 3 months? 6 months? 1 year? 5 years?

      Give a timeline, let's see.

    • Please, Waveno1.

      This is about Epicept, not me. That sayed, as I remember my writing I have stated something like: under 50 is not what I expect per month. Acctually it is a work finding that post....

      I stated in the post you are answering. "So good is that reason that my first reaction i f sales was low, say below 50 new patient/month, I would spontaniously look for a market failiur."

      None of us know the sales so I do not understand your point of giving me a lecture on how I react to figures that is not yet out.

      Is it that hard for you to see the - potential - demand and arguments around that?

      Is it meaningless to ask for your own prediction in the subject matter: To what grade have the obvious demand for Ceplene among younger patients an impact on sales the first month in the market via the IDIS program?

      You can participate here for an alternative view of making your investments therefor having s o m e k i n d of an own prediction.

      So, what is your fair prediction of the sales the first 3 month?

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