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Immune Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • jonaustin1481 jonaustin1481 Nov 6, 2009 2:48 PM Flag

    Predictions for Tues . .

    . . . smoke and mirrors show:

    1 - I would not be surprised if a share offering is announced in short order.

    2 - You will hear again about the "positive ongoing partner discussions" etc etc

    3 - You will hear that the new VP is either for a "contingency" should a N.American partner not surface, or you will hear language about how they "plan to retain US rights". Nonsense!

    4 - You won't hear any hard numbers about IDIS sales, but instead a lot of obfuscation on the topic, because any such sales will be miniscule, so expect to hear more language to the effect of how, "it takes many months to ramp up sales, but preliminary interest is promising" etc etc etc.

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    • My predictions were right on track, once again:

      1 - Offering not announced yet. I expect it prior to end of Nov.

      2 - CHECK
      "EpiCept is actively engaged in diligence discussions with several interested parties at this time."

      3 - CHECK
      "He has been given responsibility for developing and implementing a commercialization strategy for Ceplene® in North America, and planning and initiating efforts to build recognition of Ceplene® in Europe prior to the conclusion of a marketing agreement and formal commercial launch there."

      This makes no sense. for several reasons: 1) North American approvals are FAR from certain and many months away. 2) Why retain those rights anyway unless there is no expected interest by EU partner. 3) If the plan is to sign an EU agreement, then they will do all the marketing! That's why you do the deal, so his role is completely redundant. This person's actual role is not being disclosed.

      4 - CHECK

      NO IDIS numbers provided. Though we will have to wait for the 10Q for confirmation.

      So, 3 out of 4 accurate, with the 4th still due anyday now.

    • <4 - You won't hear any hard numbers about IDIS sales>

      Jonaustin: Try looking at Insmed's just released qtrly report. They reported Iplex sales, which are almost exclusively administered by IDIS.

      • 1 Reply to dctrig
      • dctrig,
        Thanx for your most interesting post so far. Excellent!

        The figures is reported as netrevenue. That is, we do not know the fee to IDIS, but we see the figures that is essential: Money in the pocket.

        My own precipiations is quite low for this Q3, but having an increase in sales when administrativ strainer is, step by step, disapearing. Let's see if my prediction on an avarage recruiting of 100 new patients will be true for the first 18 month. The slope of the curve, an erected one, n'est pas?

    • Is this a prediction:

      " I would not be surprised if a share offering is announced in short order."

      Stringency of a covard. "Surprised"?

      "2 - You will hear again about the "positive ongoing partner discussions" etc etc "

      A partner deal will not be reported in a Q-report, but in a seperat release. End of story.

      "3 - You will hear that the new VP is either for a "contingency" should a N.American partner not surface, or you will hear language about how they "plan to retain US rights". Nonsense!"

      There are NO intentions letting the US market to a partner. That have been repeated out for one year now.

      AND MORE: Jonaustin have, against all scientific research, stated that IL-2 have an own efficacy and that Ceplene is not additive to IL-2. Even though the sources are available for everybody in the slides from every presentation. 5 randomized trials, n= 830. EMEA have been clear on this. But Jonaustin knows better.

      Let's see if we have a release about fast track. Right in the face of Jonaustin.

      What's next for Jonaustin? He seems desperate when quoting totally wrong, see earlier posts. What is propellering this guy?

      • 1 Reply to larshansson18
      • I hate to admit but so far jon has been quite accurate with his predictions. I sure hope he is wrong this time and all those positive arguments that swedish investors have highlighted on various message boards really start to make positive impact on SP.

        Usually there is some 10-15% SP rise with substantial volume rise before quarterly report. This time it's different - SP hasn't moved much, in fact it's flat/droping. I guess management has crushed investors hopes too many times and today it feels like the light in the end of tunnel is swiched off for good. There is old russian saying for this kind of situations: no hope/hopelessness is a precondition for miracles.

        So, lets cross the fingers and hope that sales via IDIS is better than expected.

        I will go and fill my glass now and will shut up, to much philosofy is not healthy :P

        Good luck!
        Slim_u

    • < You won't hear any hard numbers about IDIS sales>

      What a ridiculous statement. So you are saying EPCT will release the qtrly report without a sales figure?

      That violates GAAP.

    • You must work in an office that gets to see these PR's before they are released. Sigh

 
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