We have some 18-20 MUSD cash. The 8.6 MUSD credit must be amortized before 2014.
Have Epicept had it's last dilution?
Current cash is sufficiant 1 year plus.
We have 3 potential milestones ahead: GNI, 5 musd from labeling for new older patients, the interimistic report from the first 75 patients in the post-approval trial (Meda) and Azixa in phase III, 4-5 MUSD.
My view here is that Azixa is not as safe as the other two. Let's say 5+2 MUSD.
That is year end 2012, including 6-7 MUSD for startup of Ceplene's phase III
It is 18 month to 2013. Will the sales from Ceplene give us some 3-7 MUSD?
From what date starts the period of twelve month of sales of 730 whole treat? Let's leave the e n d of that 12 month period to 1H 2013. That is royalty and 10 MUSD milstones from Meda, some 20 MUSD.
My question is, can Epicept start the phase III trial in the US for Ceplene without being dependet on a Amiket deal?
Next step: How is the economic position for Epicept in the negotiations with Big Pharma about Amiket? Can they resist any offer they do not like, going for an own phase III trial together with NCI?
It is evident for everybody that an Amiket deal will carry Epicept beyond positiv cash-flow. My thoughts is about the cold hard core question in the negotiations:"Then we run the trial with NCI!" That would of course enhance the value of Amiket for Epicept. - As would a deal where that perspective is realistic for Big Pharma.
Cook have stated in mail that Amiket is o n e way of financing Epicept, but not the only one.
An Amiket deal would shape up the tempo in the CO. Other business plans could be activated.
A start of the phase III for Amiket is a sharp signal to the market.
I've discussed on Swedish boards what the department official in Big Pharma would give figures to in his/her report. I think he/she plays safe and have about the same pictures as above when analyzing the strength and weakness of Epicept. The official may leave his/her job if a competitor gets the BUSD deal, but, the board takes the risk when the deal is signed. There for the official plays safe.
Give me a more evident candidate for a turn-around?
I like the present situation, there seems to be a litle bit of panic everywhere.
Small traders i Sthlm wants to know, that's for sure. And OK. But management send signals not just to the one carring the message to the different boards, but to those who care to listen on the other side of the table.
What is the message?: Everything is possible.
I like it.
("An Amiket abstract has been listed on the site of the JMSO “Best of ASCO” upcoming meeting in July . The abstract was prepared by the study investigators", says Cook. But, the best of meeting is n o t "upcoming", it's over the past week-end. What is to be expected from the future?:
Management will not tell, but e v e r y t h i n g is in the pipe, prepair for what ever might turn up the last days before a deal. What goes slow, becomes quick and vice versa. There is a German philosopher writing about "plötslichkeit". :-) )