Rasmussen (the only credible polling data) has Romney now leading 45 to 44 with 7 % undecided. Undecided typically go about 90% against the incumbent. This would suggest 51 Romney 45 Obama.
Some excellent charts on their website showing the steady decline of Obama.
I read the Rasmussen polls the last couple of presidential elections and they were spot on, for both Bush and Obama. However, I don't believe the national poll is particularly predictive. This election will come down to a handful of swing states, and at this time Obama appears to have a very slight advantage.
The election still looks like a dead heat.
The Rassmussen polls have the best long term track record, but none of the polls are reliable. Many people refuse to respond to poll (me included).
The number I like is the percentage of Americans who believe that the Country is on the wrong track. This number, combined with the 2010 election results, is very good for Romney. It suggests that the people want a change in the direction of the Country and that the trend is away from Government and toward the Tea Party.
The problem for Romney is that he is not a Tea Party guy. Ryan is much more attractive to the Tea Party. This should shore up the conservative base.
The election will turn on independent voters is a handful of states. If Ryan can help win OH, PA, WI, IA, maybe even MI and CO, then Romney has a very good chance. Then, it all comes down to FL.
<<< the trend is away from Government and toward the Tea Party. >>>
Could be. Last time I saw a major gathering of Tea Party members there must have been at least 10 or 12 people there.
<<< I like is the percentage of Americans who believe that the Country is on the wrong track. >>>
That's why Romney keeps getting more popular.
Romney supports lots of tracks--all going in different directions.
<<< The election will turn on independent voters is a handful of states. >>>
This is very good news for Romney because independent voters will be very eager to kill Medicare and elect a tax felon as President.
(Romney is believed to be hiding tax returns that show he committed tax fraud--a felony--but was given a parden afterwards.)
Florida should go Romney by a decent margin (iow, not recount time again). If the PA law holds up during appeal, that vote could be interesting, turn a blue into red this Nov. I look for NV to stay blue, but WI to go red; something is happening with their electorate that is confounding the pollsters. MI and Ohio are the two wild cards in this race, both could go for either candidate. On the senate side, barring something weird, it will be 52 or 53 republicans being sworn in Jan 2013.
If the repubs capture legislative and WH branches, I don't believe the electorate will give them much time to turn things around. 2014 will crush the repub party if they don't show they are capable (this time).