Just a quick summary where we are before a possible news release this month. I won't be talking about BBY's business model or our friends "the shorts".
I am literally perplexed and shocked by comments from some of "the longs" not knowing what actually is going on and wildly speculating instead of doing a bit of homework.
So, what is fact? A few informed board members have it right and keep their calm! Respect to them;
1) we are officially in a one month notice period announced Dec 14th. This has been released on the SEC web site and publicly announced through Reuters.
2) Mr. Schulze and his team have already access to the year-end figures since the beginning of this month.
3) There has been no public announcement by either board or Mr. Schulze, that means logically a buyout offer is still possible until Feb 28th. Why, because the board has a legal obligation to inform shareholders about any outcome.
4) Mr. Schulze already had the finance ready for a low-ball offer ($16) as published in an article by dow jones news wire/wsj in December. You can guess why he didn't make an official offer to the board that day, and think carefully, because Mr. Schulze is no man to be underestimated in his tactical abilities.
5) "Driven by solid performance in the holiday period, comparable store sales, gross margin, EARNINGS and inventory levels continue to be in line with the assumptions that supported the company’s fiscal year 2013 free cash flow2 guidance provided on November 20, 2012 - (JAN 11th)
These are facts, so why does it take time? For me its rather obvious. Like in Dell's case there are so many details to be negotiated and vetted by lawyers - that takes time.
In my opinion, if Mr Schulze didn't see any realistic chances to make it a worthwhile buyout deal for him, he would have announced it by now - Hence, that means he is still negotiating with PEs and banks. Most certainly the critical points are the maximum price they could offer to the board including any backup plans (hostile bid) and/or management responsibilities, basically who will be in the front seats, Mr Schulze or the PEs. Considering his age and his involvement in last years scandal this is probably taking the most time to be negotiated and that could be the potential deal breaker. But it is also clear that no buyout offer would work for PEs, if Mr. Schulze is not on board. In conclusion, I agree with oldtimer: "he would do everything he can to make it happen", even if it means he needs to give up some of the management power!
Like everybody else here, i don't know what is going to happen, but i feel very comfortable with my position and i know the waiting will be over soon.
Happy weekend everybody!