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Einstein Noah Restaurant Group, AŞ Message Board

  • forkisafunnyword23 forkisafunnyword23 Oct 31, 2010 9:25 PM Flag

    Any thoughts on the price after earnings?

    I eat at this restaurant often. This weekend when I went they were almost sold out of bagels at 12. I like the small market cap and need to do a little due diligence and may take a position this week before earnings.

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    • The price typically reverts to a PE of 12 which would take it to 10 where it will bounce around back to 12 and over and over....the key event will be when they announce the complete payoff of the series Z preferred at which point all cash flow will hit the bottom line at once on the following quarter raising cash on hand by $15,000,000 or $3 a share taking the trading price to over $15.

      Shortly after that the company will be sold to either a private buyer or to a company like Tim Horton's of Canada (THI) so they can immediately establish a presence across the US.

      The price will be approximately $25/share cash or stock.

      I have tracked this company since they emerged from Chapter 11.

      Their new CEO is from the Pepsi company in Canada and has contacts throughout the industry.

      Their majority shareholder is a venture capital firm and they will determine when the sale takes place and to whom.

      By the end of 2011 BAGL will either be a large player or a subsidiary of another company.

      From today's price the return will be 100%.

      Buy under 10 and hold for 12 months.

      I agree that their sales are almost 100% and with their inventory tracking system - in house product development etc. the company will never lose ROI and with increasing franchising they will become a common brand equivalent to PNRA....who might also be a buyer next year.....

      Good Luck

      • 1 Reply to quantum_analyst
      • Thanks for the useful information Quantum. I know this stock is mostly owned by Einhorn and some other large institutions and I expect these people are in to make as much money as they can make off of this company. I don't believe the stock will go below 10 and expect good earnings so I bought yesterday. I do hope we will see a buyout in a year or so and anything in the 20's will be a great thing. My time frame is for about 6 months but may stick it out longer depending on what happens in Q4.

 
BAGL
20.230.00(0.00%)Nov 4 4:00 PMEST