The latest carloadings reported to the AAR show that in the most recent week, CSX gained carloadings in every traffic segment except Ag. The year over change in coal loadings was even positive. Morningstar expects the ag traffic will go positive in the second half of the year with the increased size of crop harvests later in the year.
I'm not going to downplay the pressure on export coal with weakness in China and Europe, but it is very realistic to think that CSX could see greater than 5% to 8% carload growth later this year with new hours of service laws in trucking industry, despite weak export coal.
CSX also gives you a chance to play the European recovery while still getting a great company with solid fundamentals. The numbers in Europe have been getting better, albeit very gradually, but if you see a recovery in Europe we could really see some great growth in the next 6-12 months.
You are not looking at the weekly report that you can have download from CSX. YTD farm products are down, coal is down 9% ytd, 15% for the week. Iron and steel scrap is down 11%. Metal is up 5+% for the week. Automotive down for the week, but with the sales of cars and pickups at highest level for June since 2007, it is a blip. Petroleum Products up 55% for the week, 52% YTD. The glory of LNG is that it pays more than coal, because of the added risk.
I went to the local farmers market this morning and bought some awesome ears of sweet white corn. Only .50 cents per ear. Why so cheap? Then I realize, it's because of the unusual heavy rain on the the East side of the Mississippi River.............. PS. .......This lawn mowing is driving me insane.