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The Brink's Company Message Board

  • feces13 feces13 Aug 3, 2005 11:43 AM Flag

    BCO Quarterly Conf Call - BAX

    Just on the conference call - good numbers, but the very last question asked was shaping up to be about the prospect of them selling BAX and in the middle of the question, the person cut out and they ended the call.

    Did management cur that last question off and bolt?!?!

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    • most likely " bad connection" .. right

      why is BAX for sale ... which it is for the right price ( as most everything is for the right price)

      a few reasons listed below - perhaps - IMO

      huge capital to fund newer aircraft .. with little hope for a positive return in U.S. based on critical o/n volume and mkt prices

      great INTL network and profits ..

      good U.S. presence that also stimulates other world-wide biz

      a huge expense to run the corp head office in CA that can be eliminated when FEDX or ?? buys .. great synergies people, sysetms, fac, etc...... maybe $50m per year savings?
      or more ??

      the co is perfroming much better and profitably than when the Campbell team nearly took BAX to BK a few years back ..

      keeps Brinks from being a pure play on WS

      will become a greater cash consumer due to fuel, old aircraft maint, purch of new a/c, data systems reqs, etc -

      now is a great time to sell

      est value ... 10x earnings $650M ??

      will be interesting to watch from afar

      Brinks parent co mgt are damn lucky that BAX is even still around after what they allowed to happen in 1999 / 2000 .. I suspect they are eager to sell it ... and soon

      • 2 Replies to topofthesheets
      • Everything is for sale regardless of what anyone says. Is BAX really for sale? Some will say no even as rumours abound on certain issues that are occuring within the BAX family. Nobody knows how many licks it takes to get to the center of a tootsie roll pop. And with that, it is a wait and see situation.

      • Some activist really needs to kick these guys butts.

        I did a going concern valuation on BCO and assuming the retain all 3 businesses, do, by my estimates, $415mm EBITDA for 2005 at 6.75X, shares should be $44+/-.

        Do a break-up value, where you sell BAX and retain the Brinks and Brinks Home Security businesses, I come up with nearly $52/share, valuing BAX at only 5.5X $90mm EBITDA, or $495mm.

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