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The Brink's Company Message Board

  • UHUH24 UHUH24 Nov 3, 2010 10:32 AM Flag

    U.S. biz in free fall

    The last 10Q shows U.S. based transport and services in free fall. They are earning almost nothing on 1/3 of their assets. The U.S. is just too competitive and there is destructive price cutting among the carriers. There is no way to cut costs and carriers are bidding low just to keep the overhead covered. Next quarter will see a loss from U.S. sources and thus estimate cuts for 2011.

    I would avoid this stock until the price war ends.

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    • I have changed my mind after reading 10K and 10Q. Cash flow is $200M and cash flow with constant currency is $250MM. Organic growth is 20% in south america. The U.S. is flat. Capex is winding down a little. It will be $135MM this year with depreciation of $150MM. If they stopped all capex, they could pay a dividend of $175MM/year or $3.80/year and that is with $75MM retained for growth. foreign exchange is costing them $50MM/year---that will end.

      Looks to cheap. little debt and big cash flow with assets that can be written up and re-depreciated. Looks like a good LBO candidate, if not we should see dividend growth or share repurchases. I am buying some stock.

    • Negative growth will continue as cash transfers are declining as debit and credit card usage grows. We are headed for cashless society so banks/business transfer needs decline to 2 pickups/week from 5 pickups.

      This biz as bad as check writing companies.

 
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