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The Brink's Company Message Board

  • gordan.gekko@rocketmail.com gordan.gekko Apr 25, 2013 2:24 PM Flag

    How does BCO achieve 6.5% EPS

    BCO reports 5.2% EPS for 1Q13 (.30 or so for special items) not terrible, but there are always special items, that is the business they are in. On surface looks pretty good. But looked over prior years and tried to calculate out what it will take to get to 6 - 6.5% EPS. 1Q12 was 8.0% according to CFO's slide (when look at 8k from last year said 7.2 but whose counting - rounding up is always best). 2Q12 and 2Q11 averaged around 5.1% and historically is their worst quarter. Working off what we know, BCO will need to average 7% for next 3 Qs to pull off 6.5%. BCO will need to average 6.3% to get to 6%. Very doable one would think. Historically those have been reachable numbers. However, historically they had a CEO who knew the business and was proven that he could deliver. Historically there was regional leadership in place that understood the business and in most cases understood the business and were able to deliver. They were tried and true, like them or not. How does BCO deliver above average historical results with so many Executive and Regional (Country) management changes? There are certainly many more corporate VPs, SVPs and EVPs. New NA President, New LA president (hard to understand as the only region ever to make consistent progress) changes in Sales, new IT direction (which by the way cost a lot of money - suspect Ms Watson (CIO) will be presenting her Master Plan to BOD very soon, and it will come with a hefty price tag). The poor guy in EMEA has to be concerned. No COO. It is going to take much longer than 3Qs to turn. It is going to take significant time. Something that BCO and shareholders have very little of. In the past BCO has taken far too much punishment for over promising with their guidance and then underachieving. It appears that 1Q13 is the complete opposite; the bar was set so low and expectations tempered, that the results, as abyssmal as they are, were rewarded because they exceeded the far lowered expectations.

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    • Agree totally and suspect all the gains will be washed out by end of this week, if not sooner. Can't change the fact that the business and perhaps the industry in very deep trouble. Too many providers destroying each others potential. There has to be a consolidation of the industry. I'm in simply because I believe this is a takeover candidate. Correction, will be takenover. There is huge opportunity for both PE or an International Provider to move Brink's into the future. Pockets of brilliance exist, but these guys are distinctly set on maintainting a presence in the US. They need to vacate. But they will not. Company HQd in Richmond. They will hang onto the US until it breaks them. PE could break up the whole. Sell off the parts to high bidders - country by country or region by region. Whatever is left can be restructured and returned to market to sink or swim, if anything left. International Provider could do the same, sell off or shutter those activities that the BOD and current Execs for thier own reasons cannot and will not do. Not impressed with the current acquisition strategy. A lot of nickles and dimes. Small acquisitions bring all the same headaches as large ones. Problem is they don't bring all the same revenue and profit.

 
BCO
25.99-0.14(-0.54%)Sep 16 4:04 PMEDT

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