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ZELTIQ Aesthetics, Inc. Message Board

  • stockman628 stockman628 Jan 17, 2014 11:34 PM Flag

    This is a great one product company! Market Cap should be 400M

    I like ZLTQ and made good money on the GS pumping and would go long in the high single digits. The sad fact is the current market cap...over double of where it should be.

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    • Look at CSII, its loosing much more money then ZLTQ, but sales is growing and they beat with one million, market cap is close to a billion, ZLTQ has beat'n with 5 million, ZLTQ will go to 28 PPS IMHO.

    • Hi stockman,
      ISRG had also one product, and the stock was hitting 600 before settling down, its b-c the GROWTH story, same here at ZLTQ, its still growing fast, beating estimates, its very risky to short now, even the market it self had not figured out what market cap to give for ZLTQ, b-c they keep raising and beating estimates, so the market cap will go higher and higher until you have some indication of slowing growth, YES, maby SLTM will stop it, but maby not.. this is what we will see in the future, so far, the story is in the long side IMHO.

      • 1 Reply to dmbbestman
      • Agreed, it is one product company but same argument can be made on Google as a company. The company has the technology edge at the moment and the market is assigning the value to the company. No one can blame occasional profit taking after phenomenal run, but, the story still remains the same. Solid execution confirmed by excellent quarterly numbers and growth on top line. Cash burn has come down in 2013 to about $3 million and company has indicated that they will have cash flow from operations in 2014. The company has about $56 million in cash on B/S with no debt. The company has guided up to 20% growth, as they did at about this time last year which was at 10%. They ended up growing the business organically at 46%. It is anyone's guess what the growth numbers will finally be at for 2014.

        The customers on average utilize their equipment one cycle per day. With treatment-to-transformation and cool connect initiatives, they are trying to increase it higher. They had about 260 equipment placements in 2013 Q4. If in 2014 they place just 200 for each quarter and increase the cycles to 1.1 per day, per my estimate they will beat their current guidance by an extra 10%+ on sales. Past three quarter suggests the company's philosophy under new management is to guide lower and exceed. The increase in cycles as I understand is the function of the cool connect, where they will circle back to their customers with usage stats to increase the cycle time and increase customer ROI. Both the customers and company management seems aligned in the same direction, so I wouldnt be surprised if they can exceed 1.1 cycles per day per equipment. Cool connect initiative is just kicking off in North America only this month.

        VRX has a great history of execution. Not sure if their priority in acquisition of Solta is Liposonix though. There are other products in the portfolio which may be their focus. Not sure if it is a easy short at current price. Better options out there.

    • right on, a great run, rare to get in on & benefit from such blatant manipulation. Thanks GS.
      Now I am out and thinking about going a rare short. Thoughts ?

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