Without a doubt the high level of insider selling by Tol and others, in this Co and all of the major HB's indicates that they do not beleive the crap that they are spinning. My guess is they are hopeful for another strong year, but they know that at best this will be the last one. So, they are selling now at the apex. And they are selling in a big way. A small amount of selling would be expected after all, after such a great run why not take out some money. But these guys are all worth millions. So, they have all the material possesions that they or their family could ever need. So, why not leave most of the money ride? If they truely believe that strong grwoth is ahead? It's because they don't beleive it, they know that these stocks have run too far and that the market is forward looking. At best the stock might have another 6 months before a total melt down, as the HB market might have 12 months left before it declines in a big way.