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Toll Brothers Inc. Message Board

  • sage2123 sage2123 Jun 20, 2013 2:51 PM Flag

    Purchasing Power

    So in one month, the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage has jumped by over 60 basis points. What does this mean for net purchasing power? Well, as the chart below shows, assuming a $2000/month budget to be spent on amortizing a mortgage (or otherwise spent for rent), it means that suddenly instead of being able to afford a $425K house, the average consumer can buy a $395K house.

    This means that, all else equal, housing just sustained a 7% drop in the average equlibrium price based on what buyers can afford.

    But assuming the current selloff in rates continues, things are going to get much worse: we may be seeing 5%, 5.5% even 6% and higher mortgages in the immediate future.

    It also means that a buyer who could previously afford a $506K house with a $2,000 monthly budget at an interest rate of 2.5% will be able to afford only $316K if and when the average 30 Year fixed hits 6.5%: a 40% drop in affordability based on just a 4% increase in interest rates!

    Sentiment: Sell

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TOL
32.49-0.15(-0.46%)Dec 19 4:04 PMEST

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