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M/I Homes, Inc. Message Board

  • curiouse_student curiouse_student Jan 29, 2012 10:30 PM Flag

    Insane asylum

    Common is trading at $12 per share ~150% of book?
    pref - mho-pa is trading at $11.50~ 45% of book?

    Smoking is not allowed until we land...

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    • Where do you suppose that landing or cover point to be?

      • 1 Reply to wanepetrsn
      • Well, here is a reality. Prefs will have to be dealt with at some point in order for MHO to be considered truly "creditworthy" again. Floating debt at 9% in current interest rate environment is pretty pathetic and doesn't bode well for the future. Growing will require capital and that much is clear looking at the cash flow statement...

        Normalization will thus require the resumption of dividends for the prefs without which rating agencies won't budge. Whether mgmt likes it or not- pref holders have a claim to roughly 40% of the current book equity today and even assuming that DTAs are recovered which could take years - MHO-A will still have a claim to roughly quarter of the entire BV.

        That leaves us with an equivalent of at least 6M shares of common (out of total of 24M) for 4M of pref in the best case scenario. I.e. 1.5/1 tender offer.

        Not sure how many pref holders would agree to that but I think some might assuming timing is right- i.e. soon!

        If economy were to deteriorate markedly and MHO collapsed back to the low single digits- prefs might just end up owning a much bigger share of the entire deal.

        But, hey, mgmt can always "hope" that things get better.

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