I've been in and out of RPTP over the last year or so and recently I jumped back in. I was reading Adam F's article on the biotech catalyst pick thing earlier today and looking at the responses and I was surprised to see about fifty percent of people (well what looked like fifty percent at a glance) saying they thought PROCYSBI would be rejected by the FDA, this got me thinking #$%$? I know there are some PPL out there who short anything biotech and it seems like a good strategy but PROCYSBI's data looked good against CYSTAGON and reduced sideffects. So my question is, what the hell am I missing here? There has to be a real logical reason to think PROCYSBI will be rejected and up untill now I haven't heard that side of the arguement which is why I am posting here I know there are RPTP shorts out there and I am hoping one of you is kind enough to educate me on why you think RPTP wont get approval of their first indication for 103. Don't get me wrong I think RPTP's pricing of PROCYSBI is nuts and it's either going to be a slam dunk or a quick bust and I lean toward the latter in the long term however I want to know about next month and why you the short seller believes you will profit on this trade?
Because the market is pricing in the approval now. Watch it tank once FDA announce it's decision. Pathetic as it may sound but shorts always wins on FDA decisions nowadays. Same thing happened to NPSP, after their Gattex was approved.
right right I agree sell the news and some of the news is priced in right now I think we could see low to mid 6's by mid april and thats my trade. I think the folks at RPTP are nuts for trying to charge what is it like $140,000 more a yr for procysbi than cystagon but I am not an investor of RPTP I am meerly a trader. I want to hear from those who think there will be a full blown rejection of procysbi in april because they are out there and l want to know what there reasoning is behind it.
P.S. How bout ZIOP today huh close above $5 hell yah!
There should still be a slow run up to the PDUFA date. 10-20%. Once approved it will probably take a quick spike up then drop as people start figuring out what it actually means. I do agree wit OP, why would someone think it won't be approved? I get why it probably won't be profitable.