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B&G Foods Inc. Message Board

  • captainwho2 captainwho2 Oct 18, 2012 4:20 PM Flag

    Better than Q2 earnings beat, should pop

    Beat on EPS by 9.38% (last earnings they beat by 6.45%). Slight miss on Rev by 2.73% (last earnings missed by 4.05%).

    Narrowed 2012 guidance to 168 - 170 M ebitda (was 166 - 170 M)

    Combine all this with the divvy increase AND the immediately accretive to top and bottom line new acquisition, and it seems like it's bound to pop tomorrow, taking into account the fact that these results are better, relatively speaking than last time, and the recent pullback.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Well it may not be spectacular, probably due to the crummy action in the overall market, but we're up around 0.1% since the earnings release, with the S&P500 around -2.9%.

      Relatively speaking that's a pop. The Wenner appearance on Mad Money last night didn't hurt either :). This stock is a good buy going forward from here, especially with the div. increase.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to captainwho2
      • Hey Captain !

        On Wednesday, it looks look BGS is returning to its 30 handle, and more ? I think yes.

        In your memory, I tuned in to the Great James Cramer, so that I could see what would cause our stock to go to 40 by next Tuesday ! Just kidding you. What I did like from Wenner is his answer to the question regarding the prospects of taking on a "$ 500 to $ 800 million acquisition" Saying
        that acquisitive price, not scale are his criteria for future brands purchases makes me feel good.

        Many growth-by-acquisition CEOs have blown up their firm by paying too much for assets. Their
        egos get in the way of common business principles. Nice to hear that Wenner realizes and plans not to be dragged into the "too big" purchase that ruins FCF. BGS needs to "keep to their knitting" and pick off smaller "orphan" high margin brands that are too small for the Conagras or KRFT or GIS sized firms.

        Thank goodness I watched MadMoney !!!!!


    • Hopefully, it goes down more, in the 26-27 range. I think the market will pull back maybe 1-2% next week and then we'll resume higher. Only bought 1/3 of my position. Need to fill it

    • C2:

      All you say is correct. I did not like units sales being down. Gross margins beat, up to 35.9 %, led by margin benefits from the Culver Brands additions. This holds out hope that Wenner has a good
      idea that the Chipita Brands & equipment purchase can add substantively to operating margins in 2013 and beyond.

      I hope, in the future, Wenner looks for high margin acquistions, like Culver, no matter the product catagory. A lot of investors have expressed concern regarding BGS moving away from shelf stable
      grocery products. I think Wenner can operate in other retail lines as the Culver & Chipita buys will prove out in the future. I think there is no profit future for BGS in adding shelf stable, lower margin brands.

      The BGS story will not survive as a KRFT like low growth, low margin firm. I think Wenner sees
      that higher margins is the place to go and the new North Carolina assets will give BGS a lot of operating leverage going forward.

      I look forward to the Q4 report regarding margins and especially interested in 2013 Q1 & Q2
      operating and gross margins for visibility for Chipita incremental margin contribution. Wenner has
      capital flexibility to growth the business' PROFITS not just sales/scale. I think Wenner is right
      on target.

      With the new dividend hike, my total BGS investment cost adjusted yield is 14.75 %, at minimum,
      as long as Wenner does not cut the dividend. Any stock price appreciation is gravy. Wenner has
      locked me into a "guaranteed" 15 % investment return for as far as the eye can see.


    • i think it could be the same as last time. down a buck or two in the morning, and rallying and turning positive in the afternoon. At least I hope so, I wanna do some more buying!!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

29.84-0.76(-2.48%)Jan 30 4:04 PMEST

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