I was still liking BGS before the recent up-trend and now like it more. I am now up about 125% and have no interest in selling. When they raise the dividend look for it to rise even further. Just my two cents.
It is now a month after my original post. It would appear that the "good news"... eps increase and possible dividend raise... has been mostly priced in. So there is a magical target in investor's minds that BGS will have to beat. I know not what that target is, but we will find out today.
Clearly the "good news" was indeed priced in, and then some. No margical target was achieved, thus a drop. However, it is my understanding that Pirate Brands is yet to show its influence so this next quarter may show its influence in a positive sense. I am still positive overall, although a short term drop would not in any way be unexpected. I am droping my rating from a "stong buy" to a buy. If the drop is significant enough (10 to 15%) I will add to my position.
I would say the market wants a surprise on EPS growth and revenues growth.....
Zacks consensus estimate for EPS is 43 cent per share......Q1 was 37 cents.
47 cents EPS would support more price gains
Zacks also estimates revenue growth 5.87 %
Last quarter rev growth, YOY, was 8.8 %
Wenner needs to post better than 10 % to keep stock going
Maybe one or 2 cents added to the dividend....not much of a story
given the context of what BGS is providing shareholders with the
These might be some of the "magical targets?" that most reasonable
investors have to see......add to these data, info on margin expansion
beyond Q4 2012 metrics, and BGS price will go higher and tell the market
that mgmt is positioned to lever the new acquisitions down to the bottom
Over the past 4 weeks BGS has been on a strong run. At these levels ($35.50)
does a dividend move really make a difference ?
Hope for a big EPS beat on Thursday....I think it would have a larger impact on
BGS price than any news on the dividend. For instance, a div increase from
29 cents quarterly to 35 cents (a 20.6 % increase) still keeps the dividend yield
under 4 %..........
Do you think a 3.94 % dividend pushes the stock over $ 37.00 with a "meet
estimates" number for either margins or EPS, at these price levels ?
At an position cost of $ 7.86 for my BGS, I make multiples of ROI from
stock price moves as compared to dividend moves....how about you ?
In fact, in the past 5 weeks, I have made 6.86 years of annual dividend return
from BGS stock price gains.
I look forward to your valuable advice....and insights on future BGS scenarios.