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B&G Foods Inc. Message Board

  • beefstu57 beefstu57 Feb 13, 2014 2:31 PM Flag

    Stock down almost $10 in 4 months

    nothing more to be said.

    Stock will be mid 20's by May and in the teens by years end.

    Book it.

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    • First of all, this is one of just a few boards which actually discuss the stock. I appreciate that immensely. Try to find anything about F, BA, or GE on those boards. As I have said before, I am long this stock; I have positions whose upside moves more than make up for the small loss here. But I too am concerned about the survivability of the div as it now stands. A cut won't kill me, but the psychological effect on its price will be major. Anyone remember when C and FCX eliminated theirs? As of now, I'm standing pat.

    • defilip1@flash.net defilip1 Feb 14, 2014 8:48 AM Flag

      My position is similar to that of rthoms54, that is, long term, with the idea of benefiting from the dividend. I am in at 10.71 $ per share on 10/28/2010. I suspended the DRIP when the stock hit the mid 30's. I am now re-instituting my DRIP to accumulate additiona shares and increase my monthly payments over time. As you may see from my other posts, I do a little "hands'on" inspection of the products and see that they are of prime quality. If the quality slips it would be then that I think of pulling out, but not based upon daily stock fluctuations. And there you have it.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • And if you're wrong will you come back and own up?

    • I've owned this stock since around $8.00 a share. The price of the stock has fluctuated, but overall has gone upwards. Part of the rap on this company has been the amount of debt they have, but management has done a good job managing it the entire time. The acquisitions they've made have all worked out in the longer term.

      I personally don't care if the share price drops. It just means I get more of a DRIP on my divvies. I will contiue to hold this in my portfolio as long as the dividend holds and management continues to try and be innovative in growing the company. This is an long-term investment for me-not a quarter by quarter reassessment.

      As far as Cramer goes, I like his show and listen to his recommendations. Do I ever buy or sell anything he talks about? No. I do listen and then go about my research. He does make me think of other companies I may be aware of. With some entertainment value thrown in.

      I think if you want to trade a stock as opposed to investing, then you'd do better fooling around with something like CLF like I am. Or TC. Or AA. Or ROX. I can go on and on. But this stock is a keeper for me.

      • 1 Reply to rthoms54
      • rthoms54

        The BGS balance sheet is not a problem as BGS throws off tons of FCF due to its high margin
        core brands.....Wenner just said he is leveraged 4.3 X which is a safe level for his firm. The
        bankers & the credit markets have agreed with him.

        Since the NYS/Old London, the Pirate's Booty, the Rickland Orchards and TruNorth acquisitions
        over the past 20 months.......BGS has moved away from its traditional grocery store brands
        portfolio and now is a quite different emerging snacks/deli brands firm. The recent CC has
        indicated that even Wenner is not sure when the positive results of this transformation will
        will materialize. Running the new NYS manufacturing facility in North Carolina is also a new
        skill-set that BGS must prove it can master. Costs in NC were higher last quarter. Does
        BGS have the proper human resources in place in NC to make the manufacturing plant
        a profit contributor ? Wenner did not indicate he was happy with the plant operations.

        The snacks/deli transformation concerns is why the market has sold off the BGS shares and
        those results are by no means clear at this point......different brands into different outlets
        makes BGS a more complex bet in 2014. Past BGS history will not indicate if Wenner will
        succeed with the current plan.

    • Time to chime in.

      I bought this stock in late April 2010. I bought it then because it offered a very attractive yield.

      My intent was to buy and hold and as long as the divy holds, that will continue to be my position. Therefore I am not concerned about the price drop given that my return still is far in excess of 2X.

      Others of course have different motivations and expectations when they make an investment decision and grant it, BGS may at this point in time be a major disappointment to them Those folks would certainly be justified with their attitude and position.

      One size does NOT fit all in the investment marketplace.

      • 1 Reply to daveedandlaura
      • I originally bought the stock at $9/share. It doubled to $18 and I sold my entire position. When it got to around $23 I bought another smaller position for my Roth Account. I kicked myself (of course) when it went to $36/share because I could have had a "4 Bagger from $9/share to $36/share.

        Simply put it never deserved to be a $36 stock. In my opinion it doesn't warrant being a $28 stock. As I've stated before I think we go to about $25/share in another month or two and end up in the teens by year end as I envision a down DOW year.

        Captain Doo can have his opinion but I'm not really interested in it.

    • Good come back LOL. Remember the "volatility" that I spoke of. If your prediction comes true and there is not some fundamental calamity that befalls their growth picture, then that would be one of those strategic levels I spoke of.

      $26.40 would represent a 5% yield, I believe.

 
BGS
29.62+0.68(+2.35%)Jul 22 4:04 PMEDT

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