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Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. Message Board

  • jpomper jpomper Jan 30, 2013 2:04 PM Flag

    Sideways correction is over, new upleg starts

    The yen/usd correction was a "running" type around 89.0 yen/usd level, for 3 weeks,
    and looks like it ended by hitting 91 level yesterday. The yen depreciation should continue, with
    similar 1% / week speed downward.

    Paralel, NIKKEI corrected for 3 weeks, at around 10700 level,
    and looks like it finished the sideways correction. Looks ready to continue upward.
    The breakout from the longer term NIKKEI downward trend (the last downward trend started in okt.2007 !) is complete, and looks stabilized.

    Nikkei bottomed at 7000 level; which is 7000/40000=17.5% of the alltime high in 1999.

    We might need 1-2 more weeks to gather strength to restart upwards,
    but I think it is not required.

    The next upleg should start now, maybe a little slower and with somewhat wider swings than in the last 11 weeks. The BOJ must be careful with slight open market operations to keep the rally in balance: do not permit to slow down, and do not permit to accelerate to exponential form.

    As before with the intra-week swings, for now, the second parts #$%$) of the week looks stronger than the first 2 days..

    MFG looks the strongest of the japan banks.
    NMR is also very strong, just like Daiwa Securities.
    The exporting industrials are strong, they started up all, and should at least double in 1 year.

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