SPG attempted to move up but was met with institution selling. The announcement of a large project in Cincinatti will hasten the demise of SPG. Liquidity is drying. Interest rate is going up. Cost of large projects are very expensive due to high prices of building material. Look at the long term chart of SPG; I believe by 2010 SPG will be selling close to or below $20. Shorts be patient.
I think if you look at FNM and FRE, realize they are leveraged at more than 100+ to 1, are now paying above treasury yields for additional capital (remewmber, these were supposed to be as good as treasuries since they are backed by the US real estate mortgages) and understand what this really means to our entire financial system (FNM and FRE guarantee 4.7 trillion in mortgages and almost every financial organization on the planet have instruments that are backed by FNM and FRE obligations), then you may come to the conclusion that we are only a small fraction of the way to the real bottom. 1930's style depression...I don't want it but the writings on the wall....
the real question is how long until the market turns. In the past EVERY time , hugh bull markets follow.
i have loved this trading range and it would delight me to no end to have the reit fall to 70's .
those of us who follow the market for a living would be the first in line to load up.
as i said earlier the upside is 105 and the downside is low 80's. you make your money understanding these parameters.
all this talk about subprime and malls closing . gas prices rising is well and good BUT what none of us know is how much of that is ALREADY factored into the current price.
ahh thats the rub...
Well I think I was pretty close on the "WHAT", but just a little off on the "WHEN".......
One Day too early with my "crystal-balling" -
The BIG sell-off didn't happen yesterday, it happen today.
Was anybody else thinking along the same lines?????
Still watching & waiting......... every now and then a "overreaction" comes along and creates a nice "dip".
Takes a lot of time and looking... but they're out there though (At least I think so????)
all i can say is- Amen. have to agree with much of what you say in this last post.
much of the market has nothing to do with "truth"-- its perception.
still and all i can't see the numbers you're predicting on spg.
that is radical.
I saw what happened with today's miracle rally in the last hour of trading (came back from lunch and was shocked), and I'm not buying it. Nothing drastic happened to warrant such a big move, other than Paulson assuring us that the "real" house price decreases are not as bad as they appear to be due to the large amount of foreclosures. I'm laughing out of my arse on that one. I thought foreclosures sold at market value, just like any other house?
I predict that this upward move by SPG will be extremely short-lived. May not even continue into next week. Fundamentals have not changed, nor can they in six months. This level of excess will take years to heal, particularly with the amount of propping up being attempted by the government. Note that Option-ARM resets are not going to peak until 2011. Maybe then we can start talking about bottoms.
In yesterday's newspaper I read that "experts" are predicting that the erstwhile stimulus package may not be enough to stimulate the economy, and another similar package may be required next year in order to stave off a recession. Why the @#$% don't they just hand over each family a ton of money in one shot and be done with it? If stopping a recession is so important and it can be done with handouts, why not simply calculate a sufficient number and give it all in one shot? What's the purpose of these periodic injections? I can take a large dose, doc!
I sold half my SPG at 101, minimizing my cap gains because I own it at 23 - I plan to buy it back around 80 - this is an opportunity to buy the best real estate at a discount - people are always going to shop and eat -and we'll have more people and fewer malls being built - don't let the extreme shorts scare you - we're near the bottom and they are prime meat.
"this is an opportunity to buy the best real estate at a discount"
No argument there, but is the discount enough given the prior runup? Seems to me we are just moving from the denial phase to the fear phase according to this chart: http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger/6089/1833/1600/81813/stages_7.jpg
"people are always going to shop"
Oh I see. Kind of like:
"Real estate always goes up"
"You have to live somewhere"
"They're not making any more land"
Not without the housing ATM they're not. Shopping is soon going to stop completely and we'll move to a bartering society.
So since when is it mandatory to go to a mall to eat? Have you heard of the concept of cooking?
"don't let the extreme shorts scare you"
Oh only the timid shorts are to be believed? Gee, there was a time when your ilk wouldn't even give those guys a chance. But times have changed, haven't they?
"we're near the bottom"
Based on what evidence? You sound like Paulson and the folks at the NAR. But do go on, and enjoy your upcoming purchase at 80.
"they are prime meat"
King of pigs is still a pig. On the other hand, I like a stock with lots of meat left on the bone. If you know what I mean ;)
can't blame anyone for jumping ship at this time. i am waiting to fill my last 1/4 position.
the market feels terrible thats a fact
somewhere this market will turn and i never know when. i'm 80% invested but i think those sitting on the sidelines are making out much better
All weekend long I was betting (with myself) that there was going to be a "suckers rally" today,
followed by another BIG sell off tomorrow...........and getting prepared to pounce.
So.... I fessed-up and acknowledged that I lost, so I moved $100 from one pocket to another.
Sorry Trashman.... I'm also moving further towards the end of the "dark side" spectrum.