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Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation Message Board

  • llsloan123 llsloan123 Jan 21, 2013 10:38 AM Flag

    SWHC - serious investors only please!!! What do you think the pinnacle point is?

    SWHC is sitting at a low right now looking at backlog of orders, analysis, etc. What's the opinion on the pinnacle point, resistance level, etc.? Please no bashing!!!! Let's keep to the topic SWHC.

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • chancellor_of_the_exchequer chancellor_of_the_exchequer Jan 22, 2013 1:28 PM Flag

      With all the gun buying in the last couple of months, SWHC should be flush with cash. Buying back stock is usually a positive act since it reduces dilution. It might be nice to declare a dividend, since that also has a positive effect on pps. PPS should rise by at least 20% by the time of the March earnings report. The big push for gun control should also have faded by that time when it becomes clear that any legislation to ban or otherwise present obstacles for most people to acquire guns will not pass through Congress. SWHC should see pps rise over the next 4 months.

    • Several issues are holding the stock down:
      1. Pension fund and weak hands selling.
      2. Earnings will spike in the near time and long term performance will difficult to forecast. Analysts and fund managers don't like that.
      3. The company will be a cash machine for the next year, but the company has not always been the best steward of its excess cash.

      I suspect we will see continued buybacks, and the possibility of a big investor like Icahn coming in to take advantage of the undervaluation. Wild guess is that it gets to $11, and trades at a lower P/E due to the difficulty in forecasting the next few years.

    • Thx for all the good input. It's so nice to have people stay on subject on a board. I agree there is a lot of upside on this stock. As ssrbch stated it doesn't pay to get greedy. . . you'll get burned. All indications are the earnings release will be positive from what I see. This should be an interesting.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • IMO, 12 should be a relatively easy target going in to next earnings release. I re-entered stock recently in the high 7s and low 8. Will proably take 1/2 off the table ahead of earnings and hold the other 1/2 since odds are high they have blow out qtr, that will be difficult for anyone to predict. There may also be a large backorder.

      There is decent resistance at 10.80, and again at 11.15. If it gets through 11.15 with strength, I anticipate it will move to 12 quickly. GLTY!

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to portguyofva
      • I agree with your Post ... I have traded SWHC many times, and your resistance points are accurate. What I look for now, is how it may run as it gets thru the 9's, and in light of the share buyback. It still has not been un-done and into a regular trading pattern since the shootings and politics have affected it. However, I appreciate your input...could not be said any better.

    • Well, look at the chart in 2007. $21 was the high. Followed by a big crash.

      I'm not looking to get $21 here. And I'm not going to say what my sell price is going to be. But IMO we have a good chunk of upside to be had here.

      Good luck and don't get too greedy :)

11.05-0.02(-0.18%)Sep 2 3:59 PMEDT

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