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Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation Message Board

  • jrhauri jrhauri Apr 5, 2013 7:29 PM Flag

    Payoff coming soon

    I bought 10K shares at ~5.50 a while ago when the PE was at 20+. This investment was made with the thought that the price would go up with the bet that Obama would be re-elected and that he would take a shot at the 2nd amendment knowing that he would not succeed, driving up gun sales. I was hoping to double my money and sell. That is what I normally do with all of my investments. I buy depressed stocks and wait until they double, then sell. I have done that for 20 years and it pays for most of my toys.

    SWHC has been quite the wild ride. I think SWHC will at least triple. This is not just wishful thinking. In my 20 years of investing, this is a guarantee. Ironically, everything I thought would happen has, but has provided another doubling outlook! Who thought everything that everyone expected was going to happen would cause the stock to drop? Add into it a liberal investment public, thinking that deranged individuals could cause the only two public gun companies out of business as a result of lenient enforcement of current gun laws??? The two biggest, Chicago and New York, have the worst record for protecting their own citizens, have the audacity of thinking that taking guns away from law abiding citizens is going to make these problems go away?

    Now, SWHC has a past PE of 8 and a future PE of 7. The analysts have played games with these numbers. They also manipulate these numbers leading up to earnings time. The last quarter SWHC gave guidance of .19-.21. I blame the company for updating it to .23 two weeks before announcement. When they announced .26 ( a 13% beat) it was jumped on by the shorts and the stock fell. SWHC gave a .40 guidance. I see that analysts have already bumped "expectations" to .41. If Debney hits his usual 40% beat from his guidance, I will be dumbfounded to understand a cash cow stock with a 5 PE. I just can't comprehend it.

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    • I agree with you, and also am surprised at the market reaction to recent events. The overhang of a sizeable acquisition must be holding the price down. One factor the analysts are missing here is just how popular firearms are today. At my place of business, nobody ever talked about guns, ammo, etc...now it is discussed every day, and people who never owned a gun are out buying. Those that have guns are adding to their collection. The long term effects of this are very positive for this company. I will keep adding at these levels, because as you say, where else can you get an opportunity like this.

    • LOL...you could have sold for ALMOST a double if it's true you bought 10,000 shares at $5.60....but Greedy people are Greedy people.
      Look at this post on March 4, 2013 by you! 20/20 hindsight right?!!!
      The last sentence is the one that justs makes my tummy contract with laughter:)

      jrhauri • Mar 4, 2013 7:26 PM
      The flaw in your reasoning is the fact that SWHC was only, up until 2 years ago being run by an invalid CEO named Golden who came onto the scene and bought everything he thought would grow the company. The last 4 years before Debney has been taking writedowns and business losses. It was pathetic.

      Nobody seems to remember why SWHC went from 20+ to 2 PPS. It has taken only less than 2 years for Debney to not only turn this around, but state up front...we will focus on selling guns. We will maximize gun selling and buy back shares. For those of you who do not believe this, go back to past ER's when he has been in control. I have a 100% belief in his strategy and am comfortable with my 10K shares that I have been holding since I bought them 4 years ago at 5.60, watched it go to 2, and now about to get the big pay day.

      I probably am more in the know because I spent quite a bit to invest in this long ago. Anyone who thinks that SWHC is going to post small revenue or small earnings beats will pay for selling ahead of earnings

      • 1 Reply to datbehardwork
      • I stand by that post. I bought 5000 at 5.60, and then later bought another 5000 at 5.30. I just estimated my investment at 5.50. I can get out my Ameritrade documents to get it to the gnats #$%$ if you would need to know.

        I'm not in hind sight yet, shelf boy. If SWHC goes to 5 or 6 PE you can laugh me off of this board. I don't think that is going to happen. I know you wish it to. Your shelf talk indicates that you are an idiot. Sorry for your mental problems.

    • I'm going to continue to rant as all of you know I occasionally do...with facts. I don't care about DAT, who blabbers on about the shelf. The only thing I can agree with him is about that idiot Golden. That piece of you know what, is an invalid and was the reason why SWHC was at 2 to begin with. He reeks of an old senile IBM bean counter. He was totally out of his league to lead a company like SWHC, let alone a neighborhood lemonade stand. I too, am not happy that he is suckling from the SWHC trough.

      My last comment is this. SWHC should absolutely not acquire any company or assets until they have satisfied a minimal return to SWHC stockholders who have weathered plenty of incompetence over the past years. Stockholders deserve a return of at least 15 PE for any transaction that may come to play.

      • 2 Replies to jrhauri
      • But he wrote a BOOK!!!
        And he hand picked Debney who has no idea what a firearm is.
        You do realize he's just a mouthpiece and Golden is the one still calling the shots right?

        His name is Golden, because he thinks SWHC is his personal Goose, which for all practical purposes it is.
        The TITAN of Pink Sheet Companies....Mr. Golden; book writer and king of Industry.

      • I think it is the proverbial beach ball being held under water. They can only do it for so long and when they let go it will literally bounce out of the water. Libtard analysts are lying and predicting negative EPS growth for this company for 2014, at the moment. Also, institutional buyers are cowards right now with all the political pressure being brought to bear against them for investing in gun companies. I think it's that simple really. Anyone who is long just needs to be patient. This is a very similar situation to AAPL. The scare is out that growth is unsustainable. It will be proven to be DEAD wrong!!!

    • good post. Greed will rule the day. Wait for 4/9. The shorts have been trying to collect shares but with little success. Time is now a big enemy with gin control going away and an acquisition coming up soon. The Freedom assets have been on the block for 3 1/2 months and I expect news any day now.

      • 1 Reply to equity_360
      • Yes. Time is very short for the shorts or manipulators. No one (in their right mind) is selling. What would you sell this to buy into for a better bet of return? I'm serious. What would it be? I would love to hear from anyone on what that would be and the analogy behind it.

        From what I see, nobody is selling and the shaking out of weak uninformed investors has already happened. To sell, would be like selling the last gas station between here and the desert....

 
SWHC
10.10-0.17(-1.66%)Sep 16 4:15 PMEDT

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