I will go on record and say that I think it will act more like a floor than a ceiling. If the winner is going to be decided today, then the one who says "floor" will win. Give it a couple of days though and then judge. There are tons of people selling today because of the pop that have no clue of the details of the tender. There were tons of limits that had to be absorbed. Let the short term traders take their profits (which I applaud btw), and then let's see what the stock does. If it stays below 10, I will be wrong and I will be in the group to tender. I can handle that even knowing that only part of my shares might be tendered, as I would not want to sell all my shares anyway.
End of the day: Reduce # of shares by 15% = increase in EPS of 17.6%. (That will win out after the CALPERS of the world have reduced their positions.)
Edit that above to say ion the second sentence: If the winner is going to be decided today, then the one who says CEILING will win. (I said floor when I meant to say ceiling there) But it is not a one day event to base the winner on.
Ten will form a reference point for a fairly narrow trading range over the next few days - neither a floor nor a ceiling. OPEX next Saturday and the CC the following Tuesday will tell the story. In the meantime the MMs will work VERY hard to keep this horse in check.
I said it would not trade very much below $10. I never said $10 was the floor. I'm sure it will trade in a narrow range over the coming days, but I doubt it will hit $10. It will be interesting to see, but also somewhat boring in a way.