Broke the 50dma of $11.05 yesterday. That is the number to watch. This will be the test whether there is real strength or not. BUT, with swhc (costly borrowed) buyback money, they could prop it up artificially for quite some time.
The double Whammy will be when buyback cash is gone and sales decline due to burst bubble. Q to Q and Y to Y comparables are going to suck going forward into 2014. That's just plain fact. Can't improve on 100% production sales and swhc has no room for increasing production anyways. At the same time you are now seeing sale prices again on most pre-scare firearms.
Bushmaster is $699 at BUDS....who would have ever imagined 7 months ago that a gun restriction scare $1600 AR would crash back down to $699 in such a short time span??
Most people haven't wrapped their heads around this SIMPLE fact.....prices have COLLAPSED.
With the 300 MILLION they could buy OVER 40% of outstanding shares at todays price.
- So profits would go UP 40%+ next year - and you are short?? :-)
- Your rantings started with the price around $8! YOUR loss is what??? ;-)
- YOU rant about managers making money! Are you going to cry when a buyout offer comes in at $20?? :-) They WILL make a TON! :-)
- YOU ignore the backlog of over 1 year in orders! DUH :-)
- You ignore the 35 million in cash flow coming in this qtr! DUH ;-)
Depending on financing, a buyout at $20 requires about 70 million/year without using any of their current cash!!!!. SWHC has TWICE that today in free cash flow.