Ok, I know it's an understatement, but we are still ABOVE the 200 day exponential moving average, and the uptrend is intact. Do you think there was a little "piling on" today by the financial press? I think so...OK, the 2nd quarter will be down, we get it..but why? Several reasons. Q2 is always the weakest quarter. This one in particular from the 8 extra days of down time from the SAP technology upgrade. Q2 is being compared to a blockbuster Q1...think about the following: S&W stock went down because they have outperformed by such an extent that analysts are concluding that they can't possibly continue to do so well. Using the same logic, we should all be buying companies that are losing money hand over fist because certainly they couldn't possibly do any worse in the future. Truth is the 2nd quarter will have fewer work days of any quarter in recent history...that, and some additional cap ex related to SAP...again non re-occurring. these are the only reason earnings will be down. A temporary event. I'm concluding that all this BAD NEWS about the 2nd quarter got ingested by the market today. It emboldened the shorts and scared away the weak handed longs. the stock is in stronger hands today. The next thing that will happen is that the market will start to look at what will happen in Q3..., I'm thinking earnings will exceed yr/yr comps and blow away Q2.... I'm a buyer.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
llllorac, re/ based on your "Oversold!!!!!" post yesterday, what do you see as the time flow / sequencing---progression---of the stock price recovery and further advance of SWHC? ----(I'm thinking the value is there, which will at some point be recognized in share price---and so am looking to either set a follow up date or price alarm, etc. for buying common------or maybe taking some calls (dated based on when and over what time progression that price recovery and advance will happen)
Think about it this way. The company's offer for $11 was hugely undersubscribed. That was no surprise. The current price is a short term market anomaly IMHO. Having said that, do not misallocate your portfolio because you have saliva dripping from your mouth on any investment idea.....and I don't believe in using leverage. I have two cardinal investing rules. 1. Don't use margin. 2. Don't use margin... Capice? It will kill you sooner or later. I don't buy options either. They are leverage to the 3rd power. The $2 window at the track. You need to be right about WHAT and WHEN.....limited risk and all that, you just lose your money a little bit at a time. They are to investing what slot machines are to casinos. ..I accept the strategy of writing covered calls but personally its not my investing style. My time line for all investments is a min of 6 mos...I also like RGR here as a bit less speculative than SWHC but with less upside potential. i do believe both companies would be better off private. just my humble opinion on all of it remember...
"am looking to either set a follow up date or price alarm, etc. for buying common"
Odds are high it tests 200 day MA from here (9.66ish). Weakness at that point, which may be helped by overall market weakness, may lead to fill of open gap at 9.15. My alerts are set at 9.75 and 9.25. GLTY!
Me too I think you are 100% correct. The gun bubble may have popped but there is a whole tub full of suds out there just waiting to turn into more bubbles .People will stop buying so many guns when rhum emanual turns Chicago into Americas safest city and obama goes back to Africa.
Better to hope for no more "bubbles" (I call it a surge), because it gives the liberal enemies of this stock a means to pull the wool over the eyes of some, and they manage to not give the company credit for the surge $'s and concentrate on the temporarily receding point afterwards where some near term sales were pulled forward into the surge. That's where we're at now, with respect to the overall gun industry, but this company is taking share so all bets are off. They sandbagged last quarter and I'm sure they're doing it again.