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Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation Message Board

  • ybdc ybdc Sep 11, 2013 6:50 PM Flag

    My current theory on SWHC

    the stock had gotten ahead itself-----look at the daily chart with 50 and 200 dma's going---look at 2 years, 1 year and 6mo time-spans.

    Price had gotten stretched way out from the 50dma ---every other time it had gotten that far out in the last 2 years, it corrected back in, and BELOW the 50.

    ----It was due for a slap back t/a wise---and mgt made it easy by taking the production days reduction and ERP work at this time---and not doing a good job explaining that it had nothing to do with demand and that it was/ is a one time event, ---plus that pent up demand not served will turn into sales in ongoing qtrs being folded in to results/ revenues/ earnings.

    RGR's move today bolsters this case. ---Yes, RGR has some strengths, including a new factory/ capacity coming on line in early 2014, but basically they both are in the same business, both have strong brand names and distribution chains, and both have been taking share and/ or increasing sales strongly in a strong market to boot.

    -----And now in Colorado there is further indications beyond failure of gun control legislative efforts in Wash DC, that Democrats/ Liberals/ can take the pipe at the ballot box for defecating on the 2nd Amendment---just like they did years ago/ '90's, but despite warnings from within their own party and by historians, had forgotten in their continuing Big Government Control and Tyranny policy zeal.

    Finally, yes, I see the head and shoulders chart pattern off the last two months or so and that wicked looking possible exhaustion candle on ca 8/5. ---And that's a worry. -----So maybe calls here for defined risk and leverage for awhile. ----Or maybe even a strangle that goes out a couple of months would work/ shld be looked at.

    ----that's my story, and I'm stickin' to it!

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    • Another down day coming tomorrow?
      Seeking Alpha article claims gun sales have peaked, especially for SWHC due to foreign competition.

      Sentiment: Buy

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