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Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation Message Board

  • the_provo_punk the_provo_punk Oct 5, 2013 1:36 PM Flag

    NICS are out for September

    stable - down 18k from last month, a much lower decline from last year and previous years. Strong trend continues from 2011. Can't compare 2012.

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    • September NSSF-Adjusted NICS Background Checks Up 2.7 Percent

      The September 2013 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,034,701 is an increase of 2.7 percent compared to the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,007,259 in September 2012. For comparison, the unadjusted September 2013 NICS figure of 1,392,423 reflects a 4.0 percent decrease from the unadjusted NICS figure of 1,450,737 in September 2012.

      • 1 Reply to puzzled48
      • So that still gives a YoY Adj. NICS Growth Figure of +48.1% for the first 9 mos. of 2013. The first 2 mos. of Smith's current quarter are +5.3%. Hardly no growth and if that were the Rev Growth for a Food Company like GIS or K, everyone would be praising them for the growth. More difficult comps are no doubt coming due to the panic buying tidal wave surge but that +48.1% figure still gives a lot of cushion.

        ttm Adj. NICS Growth is now still a healthy +17.8%. 2012 Adj. NICS Growth was +27.7% and 2011 was +14.4%.

    • "Can't compare 2012" .

      Right !!! It's important to keep in mind that it was a tidal wave type surge and some sales were pulled from future into it. Anybody with common sense who is not trying to pull the wool over everyone's eyes to support their own short position knows you have to look at a bar chart for each month which compares to previous years and which shows that the uptrend is FIRMLY intact, despite the appearance that growth has stalled due to unfair comps to 2012 surge months. These charts are available at the NSSF site. Picture's worth a thousand words.

    • Can't compare 2012?

      I've seen 1001 post regarding NICS for 2012. Now that they're down, you want to disregard them?

      Do you work at the Statistical Dept. of Govt. that determines the CPI index?....if not, you would fit right in.

      • 2 Replies to datbehardwork
      • yes, on the upside, 2012 numbers were great for the stock and the company cashflow. if not for those numbers, swhc would not be in a position to spend 50 million on capex and also buyback 13 million shares.

        But in analyzing long term growth, one has to throw out the outliers, and 2012 was certainly an outlier.

        Now, considering how nics have held UP in 2013, its safe to assume growth is holding at the long term rate of about 6%.

        Will the shrill daytrading dummies (like you) have senseless pablum to exhort comparing the outlier numbers of 2012 to 2013 and declaring the sky is falling? YES!

        Will swhc's fundamental value hold up despite the drop from 2012? YES! Right now its priced at 2011 performance levels, that is, the pps at$11 is supported easily by $80-100 million ebitda, rather than the ttm ebitda of $168 million.

        If you insist on playing the perception game, its all your choice. Go ahead and short swhc in anticipation of 'massive comparative sales deterioration'. In the words of Robert Conrad, "go ahead, I dare ya".

      • You make us all laugh with your negative bias. You talk about moving avgs. all the time, yet you seem to think the only type of data that it is useful for is share price? Moving avgs. smooth out data to allow longer term uptrends to be apparent when short term data appears choppy and would obscure this fact.

    • You know the news Monday will be....... NIC's decline show weaker demand..... blah blah blah. I can see the Scott H. from Keybanc alert now. Price target $2. Fool.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Based on the September '13 raw NICS number of 1,401,562, and comparing with August '13 raw number of 1,419,088, and August '13 NSSF-adj NICS of 1,016,559, we can estimate NSSF-adj NICS for September 2013 will be roughly 1,0 million, nearly identical to September 2012. There have been only 21 months in the last 120 months, with adj NICS greater than 1 million. Therefore, September '13 sales were very strong, among the top 1/6 of months.

      Factories are still operating at full capacity. Strong earnings coming for Ruger and for SWHC.

 
SWHC
11.315-1.785(-13.63%)Aug 27 4:00 PMEDT

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