A little birdee has told me that you can count on 15 for your get out price if you want to until the CC. 2 million less shares after that.
Yes, the outstanding shares are melting...melting...melting. Great job on SWHC adding another 5 cents to the 1.42. Another big beat on the way like RGR. I never thought SWHC would get to 18 on it's own. ATK has to buy at least 24 now. I expect the announcement soon.
Not sure how the atk will do this. It seems they split off sporting arms for some good reasons:
1) get the value out of sporting arms. Perhaps they thought they werent getting credit for sporting segment performance,
2) sporting arms might have been a political problem,
3) they might have decided to stick with defense/govt?
In any event, sporting is now a separate entity. Will sporting be acquired or be an acquirer? If sporting was to be acquired, they would have sold it off straight away. Obviously then they needed to spin off sporting for political / organizational reasons, and my guess is the sporting segment will be a base for growth and acquisitions. So, swhc is still an acquisition or merger candidate by the sporting segment formerly known as atk.
Fifer has already publicly stated he'd love to own SWHC. I agree with your deduction that there was likely some politics involved with spinoff decision. The issue of selling it would have had negative tax ramifications to the "mothership".... Spinning it off transfers that to existing Atk stockholders.....but if I had to pick sides here, I'd say they are more likely an acquirer than the other. A bidding war for SWHC between RGR and ATK would be hitting the 10x ring for SWHC shareholders.