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Bovie Medical Corporation Message Board

  • dragan7777777777 dragan7777777777 Jul 27, 2009 6:50 PM Flag

    "If you do not know, where...."

    Hi again,

    "If you do not know where are you going, any road will get you there" ( smile ).....

    We are all getting anxious? Waiting for Godot? Tell me about it. I am day trader, my only really long position is Bovie, holding BVX since March 3rd. Nobody will shake me off here. I will give you my two cents. Sure, take it with a grain of salt...

    FDA is late for BVX, and many others. It is not company specific. Period. I have modest position with NEPH, and FDA is taking "ages" for blood filters approval. And, we are talking about Class 2 med devices. Posters on NEPH board are anxious, too. Someone is saying ( Investorshub board ) FDA decision in 2010! That's bull. Someone wants cheap shares....

    Bovie history is clear: they are very conservative, everything done well, systematically, and yes, a bit slow. This will "guarantee" no mistakes ( not like DDSS, management just made a "little" mistake, and did not check partner's manufacturing facility, and stock went down ). This time, it is FDA "problem". Sure, BVX is waiting for FDA, as well. As soon as they receive approval, they are "going to shout to the world" ( verbatim )....

    You already have heard it, I was told "no way" on Alpha article ( approval coming late 2009, early 2010 ). I could play stupid, and call them, and ask "where is the approval"? What they are going to answer? Last time I talked to them they volunteered explanation about "insiders selling". I did not ask, and sure, I would not ask that stupid question....

    There is no trading volume. MM is holding trading range. I have my buy orders in mid 8s, MM will not give anything. And, I have "buy on stop" at 10.15, 10.20, 10.75, MM is holding lid, would not let price over 10. MM is difficult, trading Bovie is like pulling teeth, day trading BVX is plain "impossible", unless you want to lose some money... We can call it a stretch, but think who would have a benefit from this tight price range? Potential partner, potential buyer? It could be, would love to hear any other logical explanation, if you have one...

    OK. Do I worry about new shorts? No, I do not. Most retail shorts are pure "technician", they are screening for stocks hitting 52 wks high, look at the chart, and use "logic" to bet against the stock ( "what goes up, must go down" ). No FA, no proper DD, no idea what the heck is J plasma. "Who cares" attitude, stock is "over-extended, let's short this pig". Tomorrow, next week, or next month FDA approval will come, and shorts are in for big surprise, will be really "squeezed".

    Good luck all

    Dragan

    PS: Day trading BCRX, keep eye on JAZZ tomorrow. Bios are getting "nuts", NVAX, GERN, ACAD, VICL, even SQNM... Will trade on "hype". I am long BVX, NEPH, DDSS, and SMED.....

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    • You people write of longs and shorts? I still hold 20k shs at a cost basis of $2.13 so I guess I'm a "long". Question: Is this eternal waiting for J-Plasma to be approved ever going to happen? Yes, I suppose it will but waiting forever becomes depressing.

      • 1 Reply to elhazard
      • Hi L,

        "Long time, no see"! I was wondering where have you been. You are one of "true" BVX longs. Bovie has the most faithful longs, and MM is kidding himself, if the thinks he will shake them off...

        We meet again "on the end of road". Investor, and trader. Now, I am loaded, added 20K in last 10 days, and have a plenty of dry powder to buy more when price goes over 10...

        J-plasma will be approved soon. How soon? Could be today, tomorrow, next week, next month, but it will be soon. Bovie's 510K application is bullet-proof ( as usual ), and FDA does not have any other option but to rubber stamp it....

        Good luck to you, and all of us

        Dragan

    • Consensus has arisen on the identity of the holder of nearly 600,000 shares BVX short. It most likely is the Market Maker. This means that a huge bomb with a lit fuse sits under the BVX share price as the MM desperately tries all tricks he can (But with scant resources because he delivered almost all his ammunition to Russell 2000 Index buyers in early July).

      Intra-day action shows this kind of stress in 100-share trades on thin volume and jerky moves. The MM must buy over half a million shares but he faces an explosive situation that he may not fully appreciate: Pending news will eat him alive.

      His current liability is $6 million since he must pay for 587,637 BVX shares at a strike near $9/share. But news will rocket the shares with pent-up buying making the MM’s liability double to perhaps $12 million if the price reaches $18, which it surely will.

      See, the MM doesn't know all the facts surrounding the J-Plasma, BOSS and Polarian. He thinks he does ... but there are unseen forces operating on BVX.

      For example, who triggered the Russell 2000 Index inclusion? How was a TINY medical firm with totally flat earnings under $28 million and no practical sales force able to swing such a feat?

      It didn't happen by accident and the MM is suffering under a massive short because of that fact. He had to borrow hundreds of thousands of shares to deliver to the Russell buyers.

      Most importantly: The MM didn't short BVX by choice. He was forced to do so.

      J-Plasma Rocket Fuel

      Add to the above incendiary mix the reality that a hidden " Strategic Partner" player will doubtless attach their names to BVX in the form of a “Strategic Partnership” announcement WITH the J-Plasma release and every Wall Street follower of the huge “Partner” will grab BVX simply because the firm then will be a takeover candidate. Indeed, the “Partner” wants BVX shares too. So the MM is caught in a trap.

      Mind you, BVX management consistently disclosed have been in “Strategic Partnership” talks for many months in 2009 and all of 2008 and even before. This disclosure wasn’t window dressing and the MM is insane if he ignores it.

      The MM perhaps has entered his cave of denial? In any event, this situation is as explosive as it can get to the upside.

      What the MM needs to appreciate is there are others with unseen information who won't sell.

      Is it better for him to cover his 587, 637 short BVX at say, $9 ... or $19.

      Only he can answer that question.

      • 1 Reply to nc_gmbolser1
      • NC,

        Thanks for the explanation. I figured he'd be taking it down to cover, but evidently he won't be able to. He'd prolly face a lot more buying below $9 anyways.

        I always thought MM's had an idea what was going on "behind the scenes". As you mention, not knowing could be deadly.

        Thanks!

        CF

        P.S. I think as soon as he reads this, he may realize $9 is more better than $19.

        BTW, yes, I'm an English Major!

    • No reason to worry about shorts...

      Perhaps it (582,637 BVX shares) is the remainder of Market Maker's UNDELIVERED Russell 2000 order surge account. Perhaps he was given 30 days grace after the usual three-day delivery times.

      That would make the final delivery date today, July 27th 2009. No delivery ... Then MM is forced to disclose his short ... as we saw this AM. Only a thesis...

      We can see a weak down pressure in the 100 shares trades. Almost as if the MM is praying for someone to dump over 500k shares and save his bacon. That's no gonna happen.

      The J-P is on track with no problems and whoever is holding this massive short is in for the MOTHER OF ALL HAIRCUTS.


      Ciao

 
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